The BER says the outcome of the most optimistic scenario does not require new policies, but rather better implementation of existing plans. Initiatives such as Operation Vulindlela and expanded public-private partnerships are seen as key drivers.
Image: Leon Lestrade/Independent Newspapers
South Africa’s economic future hangs in the balance, with growth, jobs and fiscal stability dependent on how decisively the country implements reforms over the next few years, according to new scenario modelling by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
In a report released on Thursday, the BER outlines three possible economic trajectories for the country to 2030—each symbolised by a different bird—ranging from stagnation to collapse, or a stronger recovery driven by reform execution.
At the heart of the analysis is a stark message: while global shocks such as Middle East conflict remain a risk, South Africa’s biggest constraints are domestic.
“South Africa cannot control the external environment, but it must build resilience by fixing its own internal challenges,” the BER said.
The report finds that although confidence has improved and structural reforms have begun to take hold, this has not yet translated into the fixed investment needed to drive sustained economic growth. As a result, the economy remains fragile and vulnerable.
The BER’s baseline “Hadeda” scenario paints a picture of an economy that continues to “muddle through.” Growth remains below 2%, with incremental reform progress undermined by weak implementation and limited State capacity.
Under this scenario, the Government of National Unity holds together, but coalition complexities slow decision-making. While there is some progress, it is uneven and insufficient to meaningfully reduce unemployment or stabilise public finances.
“The upward momentum fails to translate into permanent structural change,” the report notes, warning this path represents a “missed opportunity.”
At the other extreme is the “Marabou Stork” scenario, which reflects a deterioration into a low-growth trap similar to South Africa’s “lost decade” between 2009 and 2019.
Here, a shift toward populist policies derails reform efforts, weakening institutions and eroding investor confidence. Crime and corruption worsen, while the rule of law deteriorates, triggering tighter financial conditions and rising borrowing costs.
Growth slows to around 0.5%, poverty increases, and the country’s fiscal position becomes unsustainable. The BER warned this would result in “lasting damage to prosperity and social cohesion.”
The most optimistic outcome, dubbed the “African Fish Eagle” scenario, outlines a pathway for sustained economic growth of 3% or more, provided reforms are accelerated and effectively implemented.
This scenario hinges on converting current positive sentiment into a surge in investment, supported by stronger institutions, improved governance, and consistent policy execution.
If achieved, the economy could create 2.4 million more jobs by 2030 compared to 2025 levels—around one million more than under the baseline scenario.
The BER summarises this pathway as “3x3x3 in three”: achieving 3% growth, a 3% budget deficit, and 3% inflation within three years.
Critically, this outcome does not require new policies, but rather better implementation of existing plans. Initiatives such as Operation Vulindlela and expanded public-private partnerships are seen as key drivers.
“In the end, the difference between the Hadeda, the Marabou and the Fish Eagle is SA’s ability to deliver on its own reforms,” said Roy Havemann, who heads the BER’s Impumelelo Growth Lab.
“The binding constraint is domestic: whether the country can build its capital stock, restore the rule of law, maintain credible institutions, and connect to the world economy through a cost-effective national logistics system that boosts exports.”
To shift toward the high-growth scenario, the BER identified 10 urgent interventions across five key areas: criminal justice, public sector reform, procurement, budgeting, and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).
Among the most critical proposals are strengthening the independence of the National Prosecuting Authority, overhauling the criminal justice system, and intensifying efforts by the South African Revenue Service to combat the illicit economy.
The report also called for depoliticising senior public sector appointments, modernising administrative systems, and introducing a “silence-is-consent” rule to fast-track licensing approvals.
On the fiscal front, it suggests targeting savings of R100 billion annually and restructuring key institutions, including the Road Accident Fund and Sector Education and Training Authorities.
Reform of SOEs is also highlighted, with recommendations to appoint stronger, independent boards and move toward more competitive, decentralised models.
Despite the challenges, the BER maintained that achieving higher growth is still within reach. Its baseline forecast currently sees long-term growth averaging around 1.7%, but this could rise significantly if reforms are accelerated.
However, the window for action is limited.
“The bird we become is ultimately a function of how well the state and private sectorwork together to achieve a shared plan to grow SA,” Havemann said.
“The window to lock in the Fish Eagle scenario is open, but narrow. Implementation speed, not policy intent, will determine which scenario prevails.”
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