Sona 2026: Addressing housing as a key driver of protests in South Africa

President Cyril Ramaphosa will ascend to the podium tonight to deliver the State of the Nation Address (Sona) at a time when housing is one of the persistent drivers of protests in South Africa. 

The country faces crumbling infrastructure in many areas that used to be economic hubs, particularly in areas such as Johannesburg, says Professor Isaac Khambule, an economic development, political economy and infrastructure investment expert from the University of Johannesburg (UJ). 

He says evidence shows crumbling infrastructure in many parts of the country, with money earmarked for infrastructure maintenance not doing what it was intended to do.

“This has contributed to the weak economic prospects coupled with high rates of unemployment and poverty.”

The professor says that housing is one of the persistent drivers of protests. He adds that if the government invests less in infrastructure development, then chances are that the country will not see the kind of development it wants to see.

“As you can see from the old and crumbling infrastructure, properties are also deteriorating, and investors are likely not to invest in areas where the government is unable to undertake the necessary upgrades.

"Homeownership shows a lack of value in areas such as Johannesburg because of the infrastructure challenges, with the city lagging compared to other cities,” Khambule says. 

The government needs to identify critical infrastructure that needs to be upgraded and also expand infrastructure offerings to lessen the pressure on specific zones, he says. 

Khambule says the president needs to come up with a decisive plan to address the infrastructure deficit and decline. “A similar approach followed in the Eskom matter should be applied. No country can grow with crumbling infrastructure.” 

The expert says South Africa is steadily improving its prospects, but the strength of the rand has not had much of a positive impact on the country’s GDP and unemployment rate.

“The government should focus on policies that will expand service provision and also enhance the quality of infrastructure to ensure citizens benefit,” Khambule says.

Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, a senior economist at FNB, noted that new residential construction activity remains significantly below long-term norms on the supply side.

This is according to the Residential Property Report: February 2026. The constraints are attributed to weak developer confidence, elevated building costs, and a limited appetite for speculative development.

“As a result, the housing market faces no material risk of oversupply, even as demand gradually improves,” says Mkhwanazi. 

Cyclically, the economist says some improvement in housing completions was recorded in the latter part of last year, largely driven by increased apartment supply-possibly reflecting waning demand for larger work‑from‑home spaces-as well as by entry‑level (“small”)  standalone housing, likely reflecting sustained demand for more affordable units. 

“Nevertheless, overall construction conditions remain subdued. The FNB Building Confidence Index remained deeply negative at ‑37 in 4Q25, and despite some late‑2025 improvement, weak order books suggest that construction activity will remain constrained in the near term.”  

These supply constraints continue to provide a floor for house prices, limiting downside risks and ensuring that improving affordability translates primarily into higher activity rather than price correction, says Mkhwanazi.

This morning, the USDZAR is trading at 15.8775. On the international front, there was some price fluctuation.

The major currency pairs lost ground amid better-than-expected US data, says Reezwana Sumad, research analyst at Nedbank CIB.

“Local focus today will be on the president’s State of the Nation Address, although little is expected to come from this. The USDZAR remains in positive territory, but any additional gains for the rand are likely to be hard-won,” Sumad says. 

According to the report, the South African housing market enters 2026 at a critical cyclical turning point. After a prolonged adjustment phase following the post‑pandemic tightening cycle, market conditions are shifting from a period characterised by supply‑led price resilience toward a phase of gradually improving and increasingly broad‑based demand, Mkhwanazi says. 

He says this transition follows what was effectively a consolidation year in 2025, during which household balance sheets stabilised, inflation declined sharply, and monetary policy began to ease more meaningfully.

“Importantly, the emerging recovery reflects strengthening fundamentals rather than speculative excess. Affordability conditions are improving, real incomes are recovering, and new credit growth is increasingly concentrated among higher‑quality borrowers.

"Collectively, these developments suggest that the housing market is moving into a more sustainable expansion phase, with activity expected to lead price growth through 2026.” 

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