India, Pakistan in ‘game-changer’

Sanjay Kapoor

Foreign Correspondent

New Delhi: When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a surprising stop in Lahore, Pakistan, while returning from Moscow after attending his summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Kabul, where he inaugurated an India-funded Afghan parliament, it was clear that he did not want to remain a prisoner of his public image as an intolerant Hindu majoritarian leader.

This Lahore trip, the first in 12 years by an Indian prime minister, is seen by many foreign policy watchers as a game-changer in the relationship between the two countries. Which Indian PM would have shown the flexibility to gate crash into a neighbour’s birthday party when not too long back both the countries were trading mortar shells and abuses at each other?

Going by the official version given by the Pakistan foreign ministry spokesperson, Modi gave a call from Kabul at about 11am to their prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to wish him well on his birthday.

Sharif, who has built a reputation as a gracious host, was quick to invite him home to Lahore as he was to overfly Pakistan. There is perfunctoriness in such invitations, but Modi readily accepted it.

Clearly the back channels had worked hard to make the stopover appear so casual.

The big question is why the two sides have begun to talk again after many flip-flops?

There are no easy answers to both – about how this visit was choreographed and how long this public display of warmth will continue? After all since 1947, when India was partitioned, there have been scores of attempts to normalise ties between the two countries, but there has been no lessening of animosity between the two armed neighbours.

Perhaps, in a certain perverse way, it’s the hatred and deep suspicion for the other that defines the respective nationalism of both the countries. The best opportunity that came about to sort out all the outstanding issues, including that of the contentious state of Kashmir – which had a Hindu ruler running a Muslim majority kingdom and who decided to merge with India – was in 1947, when Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru was India’s prime minister. Six years after partition he visited Pakistan at the behest of the then PM, Muhammad Ali Bogara.

Nehru got a rapturous welcome. He reciprocated the gesture by inviting Bogara and organising a massive public meeting. There are images of Nehru using a stick to control the crowds during that meeting. At that time, the two countries were about to sign an agreement to settle all the issues, but Pakistan backed off. Instead it joined the US-based military bloc, SEATO. Nehru knew that the balance of power had changed by the intrusion of a superpower in the region and there would not be any peace agreement between the two countries. Since then the two countries have fought two major wars and another limited one.

Besides, there have been crossborder firings from both sides, raising real fears that the hostilities between the two nuclear neighbours could spin out of control, leading to an atomic holocaust. During his campaign in the general elections, Modi was rallying his supporters by suggesting that the earlier government of the Congress party had displayed weakness while dealing with the Pakistanis. He would mock at the Congress government for feeding Sharif “biryani” (rice with meat) while Indian soldiers were being slaughtered at the border.

He promised to call off any negotiations with Islamabad until they mend their ways and bring to book the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai attack. Due to all these declamations, Modi has been exploring how to deal with Pakistan without causing either disillusionment among his largely chauvinist supporters or attracting flak from his detractors that he has gone soft.

Not an easy job for any Indian politician when dealing with Pakistan. In 2004, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had restored cricketing ties and made a trip to Lahore to end hostility of the Muslims towards the right-wing Hindu nationalist party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but it made no impact on polling. The BJP lost in the 2004 parliament elections.

During his 10-year rule, Manmohan Singh wanted to visit Pakistan, but could not as he always feared a backlash from the majority Hindus who nurse their hatred against the Muslims for the country’s partition and the consequent violence.

Whenever Modi is abroad, he is always addressing the audience back home. In this Lahore trip, Modi took a leaf out of Vajpayee’s book to reach out to Pakistan, believing that the angst of the Muslims towards him and his party would lessen.

He may be misreading the mindset of the Indian Muslim that has nothing to do with Pakistan any more.

He believes that his overtures with Pakistan can help burnish his credentials with the Indian Muslims, too, who are feeling insecure after a string of attacks by his supporters over the consumption of beef.

He knows the power of their resentment towards him and his party. Recently, they helped other groups in handing out an ignominious defeat in a provincial election. Five more state elections are scheduled next year that promise a drubbing for the BJP until Modi can change the matrix of politics.

His trip to Afghanistan and Pakistan could herald a new beginning to his politics that shows greater accommodation to minorities.

In Kabul, he had talked about the imperative of Iran and Pakistan, both neighbours, in stabilising Afghanistan.

He also hoped that “Pakistan will become a bridge between South Asia and Afghanistan and beyond”.

Though he asserted that peace could return to Afghanistan only when “terrorism no longer flows across the border; when nurseries and sanctuaries of terrorism are shut; and their patrons are no longer in business”.

Though he hinted at the presence of these terror nurseries in Pakistan, he remained statesmanlike and conciliatory towards Pakistan.

So when he landed in Lahore, the birthday boy, Sharif, was there to receive him at the airport. A helicopter took Modi to Sharif’s sprawling residence, where his granddaughter was getting married. After spending an hour and more, he flew back to New Delhi, making many wonder why he chose to stop by.

There are many theories, including the fact that there was a lot of pressure on India, from the US and China, to start the composite dialogue with Pakistan after it broke off last year. More recently, though, Modi and Sharif met in Paris for three minutes and decided to resume their peace talks.

National security advisers of both countries also met in Bangkok, followed by Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Islamabad. All this may indicate a quick build-up to Modi’s pit stop in Lahore, but the larger issue remains – why and what is the larger vision behind these confabulations?

The Chinese have been very keen on rapprochement between the two sides ever since they invested $46 billion (R702bn) in the economic corridor that runs between Gwadar port in Pakistan to Kashgar in their own country. They would not want war to waste their investments.

Similarly, the US does not want its interests in Afghanistan to be compromised if Pakistan’s army starts building up its positions against India instead of against the Taliban.

This is the reason why the Pakistani army is seen to be on board in the latest round of the peace initiative. Now the two foreign secretaries are to meet on January 15 in Islamabad. What needs to be seen is how this “comprehensive dialogue” will proceed?

Will we see Pakistan granting India most favoured nation (MFN) status?

While departing for New Delhi, Modi promised that this was not the last time that the two leaders would be meeting each other. “Now our visits will be regular,” he said as he took the flight back home.

What needs to be seen is whether this trip chastens many of his fundamentalist supporters that have been targeting secular writers and artistes threatening to send them to Pakistan if they criticise Modi.