The JSE ALSI is a silent warrior, with fuel prices heading for another cut.

Despite all the attention on the US trade debate and the South African lack of budget consensus, the worrying unemployment data (32.9%) for Q1, the ALSI on the JSE continues its impressive performance.

The index closed on Friday at 92,619, only twenty points away from its record level of 92,638, which was recorded last Tuesday. Not only did the ALSI end the week 0.9% in the green, but it is now 9.7% up for the year to date.

Foreign buying interests in SA shares, along with the strong recovery in Naspers and Prosus, saw the Rand exchange rate moving close to the R18.00/$ level. Financial shares were the best performers on the JSE last week as the FIN15 index gained 2.7%.

On the foreign exchange market, the Rand improved against the US$ over the week by thirty cents to close on Friday at R18.04/$. This is the strongest level for the year to date.

Against the British Pound, the Rand improved by twenty-five cents to R23.96/£, and against the Euro, it appreciated over the last five days by twenty-two cents to R20.12/€.

Given the stable, but lower Brent oil price around $65 per barrel, the price of fuel is expected to come down by between twenty-two cents (for petrol) and fifty-seven cents (for diesel) at the beginning of June 2025.

In the week after the drastic cut in the proposed tariff increases by both the US (down from 147%) and China (down from 120%) to 30% and 10% on imports from the other, the S&P 500 on Wall Street shot up by 5.5%, whereas the Shanghai index in China initially recovered last week up to Wednesday with an increase of 2.2%, but ended Friday flat for the week, gaining only 0.65% on the pre-trade US trade discussions level from the previous weekend.

This coming week, investors, both domestic and foreign, await the release of South Africa’s inflation rate for April, which is to be published by STASSA on Wednesday. It is expected that the annual increase in the CPI will be 2.9%.

This is higher than the annual inflation rate of 2.7% recorded for March 2025, but still lower than the 3.0% target envisaged by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank, which it had set “unofficially” for their new inflation rate target.

It will also be the ninth consecutive month that the rate is lower than the current midpoint target of 4.5%. The debate around when the MPC lowers its repo rate will continue. A rate lower than 3% will be favourable for the Rand and especially financial shares.

STATSSA will also publish the retail sales for March 2025 on Wednesday. The meeting between President Trump and President Ramaphosa on Wednesday will also attract the attention of investors and will affect equity prices, bond rates, and the Rand exchange rate.

Globally, countries like Great Britain, Canada, Japan, and the EU will announce their inflation rates for April during the week. China will release its retail numbers for April today. In the US, data on home sales, jobless claims, and various Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) will be announced.

Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education.