Stadio Holdings predicts significant growth in half year earnings per share

Stadio Holdings, the JSE-listed private higher education company, continued a 12-month rise in its share price on Friday after it predicted that core headline earnings per share (HEPS) will increase between 22.8% and 32.7% for the six months to June 30.

In a trading statement, the company forecast core HEPS to be between 19.9 cents and 21.5 cents, compared with 16.2 cents for the same period a year before. The group utilises core headline earnings, which is headline earnings adjusted for certain non-recurring items, to measure and benchmark the underlying performance of its business.

Earnings per share (EPS) were expected to be between 20 cents and 21.6 cents, being between 22.7% and 32.5% higher than the 16.3 cents EPS reported for the six-month period in 2024.

HEPS will be between 19.9 cents and 21.5 cents, or between 22.8% and 32.7% higher than at the same time last year.

On Friday afternoon, the share price was trading 1.37% higher at R8.87 per share, bringing the steady upward trend in the price over the past 12 months to 56.7%. The interim results are expected to be published on August 28, 2025.

Anchor Stockbrokers analyst Sven Thordsen said in a research note on the company released this month that demand for tertiary education in South Africa remains incredibly strong given lower unemployment rates for graduates.

With a young population, South Africa delivered over 600 000 matriculants with university access in 2024, but only 200 000 can be accommodated by public universities, resulting in a significant shortfall that grows annually.

“Affordability is the challenge to fulfil this demand, with Stadio well positioned given that distance learning is considerably cheaper than contact learning, and its scale allows it to challenge increased competition,” said Thordsen.

“We see the target of 80 000 students by FY30E, through organic growth, being achieved. We also see scope for these targets to be exceeded through acquisitions, expansion into other territories, most likely Africa, and increased international collaborations. The balance sheet is ungeared with access to R200 million of facilities should opportunities arise,” he wrote.

Stadio had just over 50 000 students at the end of its last financial year and has set itself a target of 56 000 for its 2026 financial year and 80 000 students by 2030.

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