SA's vehicle exports face challenges despite domestic sales surging to near 6-year high

Vehicle export volumes in South Africa are anticipated to come under increased pressure in the near term as the sector continues to adjust to higher tariff barriers to the United States market in spite of rising by 6.2% in August.

The Automotive Business Council (Naamsa) on Monday said exports would also be pressured by the adjustment to the knock-on implications of the tariffs resulting in increasing global competition in other traditional export markets. 

This comes as the 30% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on South African exports kicked in during the month of August, leaving the automotive and agricultural industries as the hardest hit.

Vehicle exports to the US dropped by 73% in the first quarter of 2025, followed by a further decline of 80% and 85% in April and May, respectively. 

However, data from Naamsa on Monday showed that vehicle export volumes increased by 2 190 units year-on-year, from the 35 310 units exported in August 2024 to 37 500 units exported in August 2025. 

For the year to date, vehicle exports were still 3.0% ahead of the same period 2024.

“The industry’s ongoing focus will remain to navigate potential re-routing and further market diversification strategies,” Naamsa said.

Domestically, Naamsa said August’s new vehicle sales performance reaffirmed that domestic demand continues to do the heavy lifting for South Africa’s automotive sector following an 18.7% increase, even as export channels confront heightened policy headwinds. 

This as new vehicle sales in August maintained upward momentum domestically to its highest level since October 2019, while export volumes also gained traction despite the fact that manufacturers and suppliers continued to adjust to renewed US tariff uncertainty and increasing global competition. 

Aggregate new vehicle sales increased to 51 880 units in August, up 8 188 units, from the 43 692 units sold in the same month a year ago. 

This volume even exceeded July’s 51 489 sales and continued the market’s 11 consecutive months of growth and the most recent six months of double-digit growth.

Naamsa attributed this robust performance to a range of factors, including an influx of affordable models, improving consumer confidence, favourable credit conditions, and a steady recovery in disposable incomes. 

The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to lower the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.00% at the end of July further bolstered momentum in sales.

Naamsa said optimism was burgeoning among consumers, with household credit extension rising by 3.1% year-on-year in June and private-sector credit growth firming to 5.0% year-on-year, suggesting a gradual easing of borrowing conditions that support larger purchases of vehicles.

While inflation dynamics in July remained relatively stable, there were fluctuations in fuel prices that played a dual role; a cut in petrol prices provided relief, while rising diesel costs added pressure to the transport sector.

This mixed economic landscape portrays a resilient automotive market that, while facing formidable external challenges, continues to thrive domestically.

The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) said the good news has continued for the South African retail motor industry, with August delivering another bumper month for sales. 

Ryan Seele, executive member of the NADA NEC, said they saw noticeably higher traffic on dealer floors, with the majority of buyers being private individuals rather than business or fleet customers. 

“Many are beginning to feel relief from the recent interest rate cuts. While not all enquiries and test drives converted into sales immediately, the level of consumer interest and intent to purchase in the near future is very encouraging for retail dealers,” Seele said.

“The market composition has shifted significantly over the years, and once again August showed strong activity in the more affordable segments.” 

Lebo Gaoaketse, head of marketing and communication at WesBank, said more favourable economic conditions were improving consumer and business sentiment, driven by lower interest rates, mixed savings in the fuel price, and lower inflation that is alleviating pressure on household budgets.

However, Gaoaketse warned that household budgets remained under strain and that market activity continues to be driven by affordability in a sweet spot of between R350 000 and R400 000 according to the bank’s average deal size. 

“This has favoured the model ranges offered by the two dominant brands in the market as well as new entrants offering different value propositions at attractive levels. It is also a factor of South African millennials driving the local market with young people under the age of 35 accounting for 45% of WesBank’s customer base,” Gaoaketse said.

“This drives a certain level of earnings and contributes to the affordability dynamics of the market that is also extending towards the maximum contract term to lower monthly premiums.” 

BUSINESS REPORT