WEF sketches four possible global economic futures shaped by geopolitics and technology

The global economy could splinter, stagnate or rebound sharply by 2030 depending on how geopolitical tensions and the pace of technology adoption evolve, according to a new World Economic Forum (WEF) white paper released this month.

In Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030, the WEF outlines four distinct scenarios that could define the next phase of global growth, trade and investment, warning businesses that long-held strategic assumptions are becoming increasingly fragile.

The report argues that two forces will be decisive over the rest of the decade: the stability of the geopolitical order and the speed and breadth with which technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics and advanced connectivity are adopted across economies.

Under the most optimistic scenario, dubbed “Digitalized Order”, geopolitical stabilisation and rapid, widespread technology adoption help restore global growth to above 4% a year by 2030. Trade and investment recover, digital services expand rapidly and productivity rises, although wage inequality and labour market disruption intensify as automation accelerates.

A more subdued outcome, “Cautious Stability”, assumes easing geopolitical tensions but slow and concentrated adoption of new technologies. While this reduces volatility and risk premiums, growth remains stuck at around 2% to 3%, with frontier technologies delivering fewer productivity gains than expected and global innovation spending losing momentum.

In contrast, “Tech-based Survival” paints a volatile world marked by trade wars, resource competition and fragmented alliances, even as technology adoption accelerates within geopolitical blocs. Companies lean heavily on digitalisation and automation to offset disruption, but face higher costs, cybersecurity risks and constrained global markets.

The most pessimistic scenario, “Geotech Spheres”, envisages escalating geopolitical conflict, deepening economic nationalism and fading confidence in technology. Trade and foreign investment shrink, growth stalls or turns negative in some regions, and technology benefits remain confined to a small number of strategic sectors, particularly defence.

Across all four scenarios, the WEF stresses that uncertainty is now a permanent feature of the global economy rather than a temporary shock.

A survey of chief strategy officers conducted by the Forum found that 72% see the commercialisation of AI and emerging technologies as the most significant force shaping corporate strategy over the next five years, while 52% point to geoeconomic fragmentation.

The paper urges companies to focus on so-called “no-regret” strategies that would strengthen resilience regardless of which future unfolds. These include investing in supply-chain agility, developing in-house geopolitical intelligence, aligning technology adoption with skills development, and adopting more flexible capital allocation models.

Rather than predicting a single outcome, the WEF says the scenarios are intended to help business leaders stress-test strategies and prepare for multiple plausible futures.

“Navigating the new economy will require agility, resilience and, above all, foresight,” the Forum said, adding that decisions taken today will play a decisive role in shaping the global economic landscape by the end of the decade.

BUSINESS REPORT