JSE gold mining shares surge as Trump's Greenland claims drive record gold prices

JSE-listed gold mining share prices tracked an explosive surge in the precious metal price Monday following an escalation of US President Donald Trump's aims for Greenland.

Gold jumped as much as 2.1% to a record $4 690 per ounce, while silver surged as much as 4.4% after it breached $94.35 for the first time, as investors rushed into perceived "safe haven" stores of wealth. This after Trump said over the weekend he would impose tariffs on eight European countries, including Germany, France and the UK, from next month, unless they support his ambition to take control of the Arctic island.

AngloGold's share price traded 2.66% higher to R1 645.12 in the afternoon, Harmony's increased 2.09% to R373.80, DRDGold's price lifted 2.3% to R60.99, while Sibanye's shares were up 2.4% at R70.81 each, this while the JSE All Share Index had fallen by 0.12% at the same time.

Nigel Green, the CEO of financial advisory company deVere Group said: "Markets are delivering a verdict on credibility. It seems investors believe that the president is prepared to move from threat to action. Gold doesn't, typically, behave like this on headlines alone. It moves like this when markets believe follow-through is coming," he said in a statement.

He said the Greenland dispute marked a different order of risk to previous trade tensions. "This blends economics with territory and national security. Markets historically treat that combination as more destabilising and far harder to unwind."

The spike in the gold price reflects a continuation of the trend in precious metals last year, which in turn, had helped the JSE report a strong overall performance in 2023.

Anchor Capital fund analyst Peter Litte said precious metal miners had contributed significantly to the JSE's strong returns in 2023, with gold and platinum miners responsible for 60% of the bourse's 2025 performance.

Precious metal miners' aggregate performance for the year (up 208% for gold groups and 222% for platinum miners) tracked the spike in precious metal prices (gold up 65% year-on-year, platinum 127% YoY), he said in a statement.

"Markets opened the week fixated on Greenland... The threat sparked a risk-off move. US and European equity futures slid... Safe-haven demand surged, lifting gold to fresh record highs. Gold is up nearly 1.5%. The dollar softened against most major peers as US-Europe geopolitical tensions escalated," Citadel Wealth Management said in a note.

The rand traded marginally weaker, but remained rangebound, last seen at R16.41 per dollar. Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop said the strength of gold and platinum prices, with precious metals still being South Africa's key export (by value), was aiding the rand.

"The rand has seen gains on its own this year, as opposed to 2025, when substantial US dollar weakness drove the rand stronger," she said in a note.

"We are in the early innings of a structural bull market for commodities," said Bishop. She said demand was being driven by governments proactively procuring metals for future industries, the commodity intensity of data centres, and the eventual need to rebuild conflict zones such as Gaza and Ukraine.

Neil Wilson, an investor strategist at Saxo Markets in London, said the threat by Trump risks reigniting a trade war with Europe, with the EU looking at retaliatory tariffs.

"Quite apart from blowing up Nato, it could upset the EU-US trade deal reached in August. Near term clearly uncertainty is elevated, which means more volatility," he said in a note.

Green said Greenland's strategic importance to Arctic shipping routes, natural resources, and military positioning raises the stakes.

"Investors see the dispute as one that could extend well beyond trade policy into a broader confrontation with lasting consequences for growth, supply chains, and confidence," he said.

"Gold is acting as an insurance premium against escalation. Investors appear to expect retaliation from Europe and a cycle that proves difficult to contain. Tariffs aimed at allies challenge assumptions markets have relied on for decades," Green said.

The higher gold price does no longer have a big impact on the real economy in South Africa. Over the past decade, gold's share of South Africa's total exports has fallen by about 50% to around 5% to 8% of total exports in 2023-2024, due to falling production, soaring costs, and the mining of other more profitable commodities such as platinum.

An online search showed that in the 1970's South Africa produced 70% of annual global gold production, but the percentage was only 2.7% to 3% of global out in 2025.

The Greenland crisis comes at a time when investor sentiment is already fragile. This year, 2026, has opened with many US-related geopolitical developments that are reshaping risk sentiment across global markets. These include military action in Venezuela, tensions with Iran, territorial disputes over Greenland and an attack on US Federal Reserve independence.

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