Ramokgopa: Load shedding isn't over until the economy grows

Despite South Africa having gone more than 250 consecutive days without load shedding, the government is holding off on officially declaring the electricity supply crisis over, at least for now.

In an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting in Davos on Thursday, Minister of Electricity and Energy, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said the government needed to make sure that electricity generation supports economic expansion, not just maintains current levels.

Ramokgopa emphasised that while the electricity system has improved significantly, declaring victory prematurely would be misleading unless the stable energy supply begins to positively impact economic growth.

“The first goal is to reach a point where people don’t even notice how many days we’ve gone without load shedding,” Ramokgopa said. “That would mean we’ve transitioned psychologically, we don’t anticipate its return. But we’re not quite there yet.”

South Africa’s electricity system has seen improvements in capacity and reliability, with an average of 4 000MW to 5 000MW of excess energy available daily. Occasional technical issues, such as a fire on transmission lines, may temporarily reduce output, but the system has proven resilient.

Ramokgopa acknowledged that a number of intensive electricity using companies had closed doors as a result of a number of factors, chief among them being the cost of energy.

He said if smelters such as Samancor, Merafe, or Vedanta, for example, were to switch on their operations all at the same time, electricity demand would shoot up to an additional 7 000MW, leaving the country with a deficit of 2 000MW. 

However, Ramokgopa was clear that the end of load shedding cannot be measured solely by technical readiness. He highlighted that while the technical system was improving, economic growth must be the next milestone.

He said load shedding will only be over when the economy can grow at least by 3% and the system can still accommodate failures without having to switch off lights.

"My measure of load shedding being over is the following: If the economy tomorrow were to grow by 3% and you still have one or two failures - because it's the nature of the system and you're going to have such incidents - and the lights don't go off, I don't have to call the press conference, then load shedding is over," he said.

"With the current performance of the economy, the system is stable. But growth requires more energy. We have to generate enough to support expansion without resorting back to load shedding. So I can't base the declaration on an economy that continues to be suppressed."

Ramokgopa said that while electricity generation has increased, it was still below the peak levels achieved in 2007 and 2008.

As a result, he said that accepting load shedding as over now would imply accepting the economy’s slow growth, currently hovering at 0.8%. The minister emphasized that this cautious approach is crucial to long-term planning.

"To the extent that we're given an assignment to end load shedding, as we understand it, to generate the capacity to meet the current economic demand, we have solved that," he said.

"But I'm just saying that there's a new target that's coming."

Meanwhile, Ramokgopa said private-sector involvement remained a key component of the country’s energy strategy, with some projects delayed or under construction.

“Some publicly procured private generators are not yet online, and that affects the total capacity. This is why we need to plan for contingencies, like the gas supply or additional generation sources,” he explained.

Ramokgopa said these “insurance” measures ensure that even if some planned sources do not come online, the system remains reliable.

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