The fifth edition of the survey, which covers 10 major African markets and released on Thursday, found that firms are reporting improvements across all major infrastructure categories for the first time since the barometer’s launch in 2022.
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East Africa has emerged as the continent’s strongest-performing trade hub, buoyed by sweeping infrastructure upgrades, policy coordination and rising business confidence, according to the latest Africa Trade Barometer (ATB) released by Standard Bank Group.
The fifth edition of the survey, which covers 10 major African markets and released on Thursday, found that firms are reporting improvements across all major infrastructure categories for the first time since the barometer’s launch in 2022.
The report includes Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. Together these markets account for about 68% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP, making the findings a significant indicator of broader continental trade trends.
South Africa dropped from 1st to 2nd place, while Namibia fell to 3rd, Kenya to 7th, and Zambia to 10th. Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda remained stable, retaining their positions at 5th, 4th, and 9th, respectively.
Philip Myburgh, head of trade for business and commercial banking at Standard Bank Group, said the improvements signal growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade systems.
“Across the 10 markets we surveyed, firms reported improvements across every major infrastructure category, including power, telecommunications, road, rail, ports and digital border systems,” Myburgh said.
“This marks the first time since the Africa Trade Barometer’s launch that all infrastructure indicators have improved simultaneously, reflecting growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade facilitation across the continent.”
Growth is projected to reach around 4.3% in 2026, supported by moderating inflation in seven of the 10 economies and improvements in external debt positions.
The barometer’s business confidence index rose to 65, with most firms expecting stronger turnover and more stable trading conditions. Strong demand and prices for commodities such as gold, platinum and copper have provided a boost to exporters and foreign exchange earnings across several economies.
Regional trade integration is also gathering momentum. Awareness of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has reached 50% among surveyed firms, with businesses increasingly recognising its potential to ease the movement of goods, expand market access and support industrialisation.
The report noted that early AfCFTA-enabled shipments are already demonstrating practical progress in facilitating cross-border trade.
East Africa emerged as the strongest-performing sub-region in the latest survey, recording a 10-percentage-point increase in export activity. The report attributes this growth to policy coordination and trade facilitation reforms across the region.
Kenya is playing a central role in strengthening regional integration. A recent Kenya–Uganda trade reclassification, which treats goods originating in Kenya as intra-regional transfers rather than imports, has reduced administrative friction within the East African Community.
At the same time, Kenya and Tanzania have renewed commitments to remove non-tariff barriers that had previously slowed cross-border trade. These reforms are being supported by major upgrades to the Northern and Central transport corridors, which are improving logistics efficiency by reducing border delays and strengthening supply-chain reliability.
For businesses operating in the region, the improvements are translating into lower transaction costs and greater confidence in expanding cross-border operations.
The report also highlighted changes in global trade relationships.
It said recent tariff shifts affecting access to the United States have contributed to declining engagement with US trade partners among surveyed firms. At the same time, businesses are increasingly turning to Asian markets, particularly China, as key sourcing partners.
Companies cited competitive pricing, broader product variety, faster response times and stronger supply-chain reliability as reasons for growing trade with Asian suppliers.
Digital payment systems are also transforming cross-border trade across the continent.
The survey found that 78% of cross-border sales and 79% of purchases are now facilitated through digital payments, supported by bank-led platforms, mobile-money integration and the expansion of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS).
PAPSS allows businesses to settle transactions in local currencies, reducing reliance on hard currencies and speeding up cross-border payments.
Despite the positive trends, climate-related pressures remain a concern for businesses. About 38% of firms reported shifts in demand linked to climate impacts, while 32% cited productivity losses, highlighting the need for more resilient infrastructure and production systems.
The report concluded that Africa’s trade outlook is improving as infrastructure investment, macroeconomic stabilisation and regional integration gather pace. However, geopolitical risks — including ongoing tensions in the Middle East — could introduce volatility in energy prices and supply chains, potentially affecting trade costs in the near term.
Myburgh said continued progress on AfCFTA implementation would be critical in sustaining the positive momentum.
“As AfCFTA implementation deepens, and as more countries harmonise customs, regulatory frameworks and logistics platforms, Africa’s ability to expand industrial capacity, scale regional value chains and strengthen competitiveness is set to accelerate,” he said.
BUSINESS REPORT