The latest economic indicator indicates that while the country's economic recovery is expected to be slow, it is steadily picking up.
The country's seasonally adjusted leading economic indicator rose further in March, increasing to an index level of 126.7 from 125 in February, and a revised 124.7 (125.1) in January after a sharp rise from 120.9 in December.
This represents a 20.8% year-on-year increase for March versus an 18.4% y/y rise for February.
Apart from an aberration in July 2009 when it broke a three-month winning streak, the indicator has been rising every month since March 2009.
The index provides a barometer of economic growth for at least six months ahead.
The leading indicator had been over 120 and nearer to 130 for the whole of 2007 when the country was enjoying its best run since the Second World War.
The coincident indicator for February was reported at 141 from a revised 140.4 (140.6) a month before. The lagging indicator was reported at 105.9 from a revised 106.9 (107.6).
The drastic declines in South Africa's leading and coincident economic indicators had cemented the idea that South Africa was in a recession.
And this was borne out in no uncertain terms when news broke of a -6.4 percent GDP decline in in last year's first quarter from -1.8 percent before.
However, the country has now officially pulled itself out of the recessionary quagmire.
South Africa's real gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annualised (saa) basis rose by 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 after +0.9 percent in the third quarter of 2009 from a revised -7.4 percent (-6.4 percent) in the first and a revised -2.8 percent (-3.0 percent) in the second quarter.
GDP growth in South Africa is seen improving to 4.3 percent quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annualised (saa) in the first quarter from the 3.2 percent of the fourth quarter, according to a poll of leading economists by I-Net Bridge.
The range of forecasts for the current survey, among nine economists, was from 3.3 percent q/q to 5.6 percent.
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) will release the latest gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures on Tuesday at 11.30am.
The growth profile in the first quarter is expected to reflect a rebalancing in the economy.
"In essence, the demand-side driven sectors, i.e. sectors encompassing domestic trade, finance and business services, are expected to provide significant upward momentum to growth after having lagged the supply-side sectors for two quarters," said one of the economists.
The central bank has stolen some of the thunder around these statistics by saying it sees first quarter GDP at 3.7 percent.
The coincident indicator is an economic factor that varies directly and simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the current state of the economy.
The lagging indicator changes after the economy has already begun to follow a particular trend.
The SARB uses over 200 economic time series to determine the turning points of the South African business cycle.
Using these indicators, the leading, coincident and lagging composite business cycle indices are produced that indicate the direction of the change in economic activity rather than the level of economic activity. - I-Net Bridge