Doomsday: A probability scenario of drought in SA
|Published
By Muzi Dladla
South Africa’s climate is a complex mosaic, marked by its heterogeneous but predominantly semi-arid conditions. This diversity, however, does not shield the nation from the increasing threats posed by climate variability.
The widening gap and stickiness of each El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle extreme, now lasting three years or even projected to be more by meteorological experts, exacerbate the challenges.
From the crippling 2016 drought that saw dams dry up and farmlands wither, to the devastating 2022 floods that swept away homes and livelihoods, the nation has experienced extreme climatic events that hint at a grimmer future.
Imagine a scenario where the extremes converge in a relentless sequence, each phase intensifying the suffering of the land and its people. For this narrative, we delve into the progressive onslaught of a probable doomsday drought, unravelling over several years from a meteorological drought to a socio-economic catastrophe.
Year One: The beginning – meteorological drought
The skies turn grim and unyielding. This begins with a gradual decline in rainfall. Clouds pass by, dark and heavy with promise, only to drift away without delivering their precious cargo. Fields that once basked in the seasonal showers now lay parched under the South African unforgiving sun. Farmers look up in vain, hoping for rain. As the months roll on, the lack of rain becomes a cruel certainty.
Year Two: The rapid descent – flash drought
Then, without warning, the flash drought strikes. Temperatures soar to exceptional heights. The vegetation, weakened by the prolonged dry spell, wilts and withers. Crops fail. The rapid onset of the drought onslaught leaves no time for preparation and no room for recovery. Subsistence farmers watch in disbelief as their lifeblood – the harvests that sustain them – vanish almost overnight. Cattle stand as lean skeletons.
Year Three: The prolonged struggle – agricultural drought
With the soil devoid of moisture, the agricultural drought takes its cruel hold. The fields lay barren. Farmers find the land too arid to nurture growth. In the rural heartlands, the impact is profound. Families, who had once relied on their harvests, face the grim reality of hunger. The scarcity of food sends prices soaring and the flash of scarcity looms large.
Year Four: The drying veins – Hydrological drought
The hydrological drought deepened the crisis. Rivers, reservoirs and lakes are drained of their essence. The Vaal and Limpopo Rivers, vital sources of water for millions, shrink to mere shadows of their former selves. Dams lie drying and exposed.
Urban centres, heavily reliant on these water sources, begin to feel the strain. Water restrictions become the norm and taps run dry more often than not. In townships and cities, queues for water become a daily ordeal.
Year Five: The hidden crisis – groundwater drought
As surface water vanishes, communities that have means turn to the ground, tapping into aquifers and wells. But as the groundwater dries out, bringing a new layer of despair. The silent reserves of water, hidden beneath the earth, are depleted. In rural villages, the search for water becomes an all-consuming task.
Year Six: The human toll – socio-economic drought
Finally, the socio-economic drought lays bare the full extent of the catastrophe. The cumulative impacts of the previous years culminated in a profound crisis. The natural environment, ravaged, became a backdrop for human suffering. The social fabric, frayed by years of hardship, began to unravel.
South Africa experiences a large-scale “day zero” as envisaged in Cape Town in 2017. Communities, once resilient and self-reliant, face displacement. Rural areas see an exodus of people, seeking refuge in urban centres bursting at the seams. Job losses in agriculture and related industries push families into poverty. The price of basic commodities soars and the struggle for survival becomes a daily reality.
Health-care systems, strained by malnutrition and waterborne diseases, buckle under pressure in a country with the highest income disparity in the world. Schools see attendance plummet as children are forced to help their families in the search for water and food. The social contract, the unspoken agreement between people and the government, is tested to its limits.
Turning the tide: A call to action
“Doomsday” is a hypothetical but probable scenario, serving as a stark reminder of the fragility of our environment and the profound interconnectedness of natural and human systems. South Africa, with its diverse climates and resilient people, must heed the warning. The time for action is now, and the steps we take will determine our future resilience against the impending threat of drought.
1. Agricultural production: It is essential to establish an insurance scheme to cover losses against drought, but this scheme must be more than just a safety net; it should be a supportive and continuous effort. The Department of Agriculture must also strengthen its Extension Services, which play a crucial role in advising farmers on practical aspects like optimal water use, climate-smart agriculture, and soil water conservation practices. The measures are necessary to optimise the water use versus production ratios, ensuring that agriculture can continue even in the face of challenging climatic conditions.
Furthermore, the National Disaster Management Plan, which exists to provide a safety net during such crises, must be managed effectively. The plan’s success hinges on proper implementation and co-ordination across all levels of the government and society.
2. Downstream effects of agricultural production failure: Should agricultural production fail, the consequences would ripple through the entire value chain. The loss at the primary production level would not only lead to job losses at the farm level, impacting local and regional economies but also cascade to the secondary and tertiary levels of production within the larger national economy.
This would result in a significant drop in turnover and negatively impact various economic indices. It is critical to remember that the agricultural value chain contributes approximately 15 to 20% of the gross national product, underscoring its importance to the broader economy.
3. Collective responsibility and co-ordination: It is our collective responsibility as citizens, government bodies and organised industries, such as entities like Grain SA, to co-ordinate efforts and actively participate in policy-making processes. Moreover, we must engage in awareness campaigns to educate the populace, who will ultimately drive the change in responsiveness needed to build resilience. In doing so, we can ensure that the lessons from our past guide us toward a future where we are better equipped to face the challenges posed by drought.
Sustainable water management, climate adaptation strategies and a commitment to preserving our natural resources are not just options – they are imperatives. The story of “Doomsday” need not become a reality. With foresight, co-operation and unwavering resolve, South Africa can chart a path toward a future where the nemesis of drought is met with resilience and hope. The lessons are clear, the choices, urgent. The fate of a nation and the well-being of its people hang in the balance.
Dladla is the Executive Manager for Stakeholder Management at Sasria, a non-life insurance company that provides coverage for damage caused by special risks such as politically motivated malicious acts, riots, strikes, terrorism and public disorders.
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