The November 2024 Household Affordability Index, released last week, showed a steady increase in the price of essential groceries, including maize meal (up 3%), putting further strain on already stretched household budgets. File picture: Bongani Shilubane/Independent Newspapers
Higher maize prices will negatively impact food security for poor families in South Africa, especially those who rely on maize as a staple food.
According to Professor Maxwell Mudhara, an agricultural economist at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, the sharp rise in maize prices will force families to reallocate their budgets, particularly as they prepare for the festive season.
“Money normally used for ‘luxuries' during the festive season may need to be re-allocated towards maize meal purchases. This will certainly dampen the mood that normally comes with such occasions,” he said.
A recent USDA report indicates that South Africa may need to import up to 800 000 metric tons of maize between May 2024 and April 2025 due to tight domestic supplies. White maize is currently trading at over R6 300 per ton, while yellow maize is priced at over R5 000 per ton. These increases are partly driven by the country's weaker currency, strong regional demand and limited local maize reserves.
Mudhara said it is critical that that the government carefully monitor price trends and implement short-term interventions to protect the most vulnerable.
While global maize prices peaked in 2022 and then declined in 2023, local prices have continued to rise and are not moving in tandem with world prices. This could be due to regional factors such as the El Niño-induced drought in Southern Africa, which has led to higher demand as reserves dwindle, he said.
The El Niño phenomenon, which has caused prolonged heat stress and adverse rainfall, has significantly impacted the current maize production season.
The pressure on maize demand is expected to persist until at least June 2025, when the next harvest is expected.
Maize plays a strategic role in the South African economy, with significant implications for food security.
In South Africa maize meal is most widely used to make pap, a traditional dish similar to polenta. Pap is typically served as a side dish with meats, stews, or vegetables and is a core part of the diet for many South Africans.
The November 2024 Household Affordability Index, released last week, showed a steady increase in the price of essential groceries, including maize meal (up 3%), putting further strain on already stretched household budgets. At a total average cost of R5 361.04, the household food basket is still unaffordable for many.
The National Agricultural Council (Namc) said maize is not only a key staple for human consumption, but also an important feed for livestock. South Africa's maize production supports food security not only within its borders but also in neighbouring countries.
For the 2024/2025 season, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) reports a reduction in the expected white maize harvest, with estimates dropping to 12.7 million tons, about 0.6% lower than previous forecasts. The decrease in maize supply is largely due to the drought conditions, which have affected producer deliveries.
Despite this reduction, maize remains a vital part of the South African diet. Many families depend on white maize because it is one of the most affordable staple foods available. However, as supply shrinks, prices are likely to continue rising, placing further strain on the budgets of low-income households.
Namc has indicated that there are industry support mechanisms in place to ease the burden of high maize prices. Farmers can apply for diesel rebates through the South African Revenue Service and access blended finance packages from the Land Bank to mitigate rising production costs.
On the demand side, consumers benefit from zero-rated VAT on basic foodstuffs, including maize meal, which helps to cushion the impact of higher prices. Additionally, trade agreements allow for the import and export of maize, providing some relief to local markets.
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