The future of solar PV in South Africa: Insights from industry experts

South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (Sapvia) in an interview with Business Report said that they believe there is still a big future for the Solar PV industry despite a significant reduction in loadshedding by Eskom.

Frank Spencer, the spokesperson for Sapvia, said  the association sees the solar PV industry in South Africa as the most important component of future electricity supply. “Solar PV is already being deployed at all scales in South Africa, from small home rooftop systems to large solar farms spanning many hundreds of hectares. In all these cases, solar PV is providing the lowest cost source of new electricity to South Africans, whether through private installations or through public supply by Eskom and municipalities.”

Solar offers low costs, clean electricity, deployable at all scales, and when coupled with battery storage, can also provide reliable electricity outside of sunshine hours.

“The rapid deployment of Solar PV significantly helped to reduce load shedding," Spencer said. "However, South Africa still needs to build many more new clean power plants to help the economy grow and also to replace the old polluting coal power plants as they are decommissioned. Thus, solar PV will be a major contributor for decades to come.”

Solar is perhaps the most important technology as it is the lowest cost source of clean electricity and will be a major contributor to South Africa’s carbon emission reduction goals, he said.

Ruse Moleshe, the managing director of RUBK, an energy and infrastructure consulting and advisory firm, said that solar PV, both large utility and smaller scale residential solutions, have and will play a role in the country's energy mix. “They have an advantage of being sources of cleaner energy and shorter lead times in terms of construction and installations. Affordability, however, for the decent energy user remains a challenge. Without government support, only the affluent can afford rooftop energy solutions. In terms of the electricity system in general, South Africa needs a mix of technologies, including but not limited to solar PV.”

Moleshe said the variability or intermittency of renewable energy solutions means that there is a need for flexible capacity that is available during periods of cloud cover.

Even though loadshedding has been reduced significantly, he said there is still a need for reserve capacity and future new projects to meet demand, giving some plants need to be decommissioned post-2030.

"Infrastructure development has long lead times; therefore, planning needs to take place in advance, not to wait for the country to face constraints,” Moleshe said.

Professor Vally Padayachee, an energy expert and former Eskom generation executive manager, said he believes that there remains a significant future for solar PV in South Africa's energy landscape. “As noted by Sapvia, solar energy is not only a low-cost source of electricity but also a clean and renewable option that aligns with our commitment to a Just Energy Transition (JET). This transition is essential as we move from a high carbon to a low carbon economy, ensuring we meet both economic and environmental goals.”

Padayachee added that while the reduction of load shedding has provided a temporary respite, it's crucial to recognise that our electricity grid has its limits. “Overloading the grid with too much renewable energy, such as solar, without adequate management can lead to instability and potential failures, similar to the recent blackouts experienced in Spain and Portugal. Therefore, there must be a careful balance in how we integrate solar PV into our energy mix.”

To achieve a stable and resilient energy system, it's imperative to combine renewable sources like solar with dispatchable energy options such as gas, hydro, and nuclear power. “These dispatchable sources can provide the flexibility required to meet demand fluctuations and ensure a continuous supply of electricity, especially during peak times or when renewable output is low," Padayachee said. "A diversified energy portfolio will not only enhance grid stability but also support the reliability of our power supply as we transition toward more renewable solutions.”

Padayachee added that solar PV continues to be an integral part of South Africa's energy strategy. “Its role as a clean and affordable energy source is undiminished - even as we seek to enhance the reliability and stability of our national grid.”

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