South African petrol prices may rise slightly next week amid global oil fluctuations

As the global oil market continues to exhibit minor fluctuations, South African drivers may face a slight increase in petrol prices next week, according to experts.

The Brent crude oil price has recently stabilised around $66.54 (R1 144) per barrel, raising discussions about the potential effects on the local petrol market.

Professor Waldo Krugell of North-West University noted that Brent crude was trading within its recent range, saying that while concerns about sanctions on Russia persist, oversupply fears continue to offset them.

Krugell added that the key factor for us will be the rand-dollar exchange rate over the next week.

“On Friday's data, there is an under-recovery of 2 cents to 10 cents on petrol, but if the rand stays strong, the fuel price may end up virtually unchanged,” he said.

Old Mutual Group chief economist, Johann Els, pointed out that oil prices have eased since early August, when Brent traded near $70 per barrel.

“It's now around $66. The rand was also stronger - from around R17.90 early August to around R17.26. This will likely lead to further petrol price declines in November. For October, we will likely see a small petrol price increase,” he said.

Independent economist Ulrich Joubert said geopolitical risks remained in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

“Because of that, one could assume that there are some higher levels of tension in Europe, and that could have an impact on the oil price, especially in the sense that Russia is a large provider of energy, oil, and gas, and especially gas to Western Europe. So that could have an impact on energy prices,” he said.

“Overall, if we look at the situation with the oil price, we see that there are many indications. The average price of petrol this month would be higher than last month. There could be a rise in the petrol price of a few cents. I think it was about five cents, but in the case of diesel, the prices could come down by a figure of about 10 cents, so small changes one could almost say a sideways movement in the petrol and diesel prices.”

Tracey-Lee Solomon, an economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), highlighted rising tensions after Britain, Canada and Australia recognised a Palestinian state.

“Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that a Palestinian state would not be established, and fears are that Israel will likely intensify their offensive. Meanwhile, Russia edged closer to provoking Polish forces to join the war in Ukraine by targeting western Ukraine near the border with Poland,” she said.

“The Brent crude oil price has remained range-bound below $70/bbl. As a result, data from the Central Energy Fund shows that so far, we are on track for a modest 10c/litre increase in Petrol 95 and a 9c/litre decrease in the price of diesel.”

Investec economist Lara Hodes said that the oil price was largely contained, while the rand has appreciated against the dollar.

“Currently, a marginal increase in the petrol price is building for October, according to the Central Energy Fund (CEF) as at 19/09/2025; however, this could change.”

Professor Bonke Dumisa, an independent economist, said that there was no strong evidence of this because recently crude oil prices have been consistently moving between $65 and $68 with no easing patterns to follow.

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