SA agriculture sees strong crop recovery, but livestock struggles persist amid FMD outbreak

South Africa’s Agricultural Conditions Assessment Committee (ACAC) says the country’s farming outlook is showing strong signs of recovery across most crop and fruit sectors, but the livestock industry remains under severe strain due to the ongoing Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak.

In its third quarterly meeting for 2025 held earlier this week under the Department of Agriculture, the committee reported that while overall agricultural conditions are uneven, the balance remains tilted toward a positive growth trajectory.

“In field crops, the output is up from the 2023-24 season, boosted by the favourable rainfall and vast planting area," it said.

"For example, South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 19.94 million tons, a 28% year-on-year increase. This encompasses maize, soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum, dry beans, and groundnuts.”

According to the ACAC, fruit production has rebounded strongly this year, with citrus, deciduous fruit, table grapes, and other fruit categories recording improved yields and export volumes compared to last season.

The wine industry is also benefiting from favourable conditions, with significant upward revisions in grape harvest estimates. Vegetable production has also benefited from consistent rainfall.

“Volumes are up year on year for most major vegetables, but given that the bulk of produce is consumed locally, additional volumes do bring price pressure.”

Despite the broader recovery, ACAC flagged persistent challenges in the livestock sector, particularly due to Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD). The outbreak, coupled with delays in vaccination efforts, continues to affect beef and dairy producers, undermining profitability and production capacity.

"Widespread impact from FMD has disrupted production, with slaughter volumes and carcass weights down as a result. But the one positive aspect is the better feed prices the ACAC continues to observe, following the large soybean and maize harvest," said the committee.

ACAC warned that while the overall agricultural environment is leaning positive, the livestock industry remains vulnerable, with the FMD crisis posing an ongoing threat to recovery.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), said 2025 is shaping up to be a recovery year for the sector.

“We will likely see the benefit of the excellent production figures through also the third quarter agricultural growth figures when the GDP data is out," Sihlobo said.

"The third quarter figures will add on the high-frequency data that already reflect this optimism, with the sector's gross value added having expanded by 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of this year and by 2.5% in the second quarter of the year.”

The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index also remained firmly positive at 63 points in the third quarter — well above the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism.

“The close observers of the sector are aware that this flourishing picture conceals some significant challenges in certain subsectors," Sihlobo said.

"The sector's recovery, while generally uplifting, is uneven. The major subsector of agriculture, livestock, is strained. The foot-and-mouth disease that many South Africans read about at the start of this year remains a major challenge and constraint for livestock farmers.”

General Manager of TLU SA, Mr Bennie van Zyl, raised concerns about how the government is handling the FMD situation. He criticised the current system, which restricts vaccine administration to State veterinarians, excluding private practitioners.

“I have got great concern regarding legislation and practice; the whole issue of the control of this disease is in the hands of the state veterinarians and the vaccines. They are only allowed to administer that, and the private vets are not allowed to do that," he said.

"At this stage, it's a huge concern for the sector. I think the better and the sooner and the quicker they can privatise the whole issue regarding vaccines, also the development and the producing of vaccines the better for the sector." 

Van Zyl added that the FMD outbreak was a worry.

“I don't think that the State is hands-on enough with the capacity they do have to run this thing efficiently, and at the end of the day, the farmers pay the price, and after that, the consumers pay the price.”

BUSINESS REPORT