Nersa approves 6% decrease in Sasol Gas maximum price for Q3 2025/26

The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) has approved an adjustment to Sasol Gas’s maximum gas price for the third quarter of the 2025/26 financial year, resulting in a 6% decrease from the previous quarter.

Announcing the change on Friday, Nersa said the adjustment aligns with its June 2025 decision allowing Sasol Gas to revise its maximum gas price every quarter in line with fluctuations in gas acquisition costs.

Under this framework, Sasol Gas must submit quarterly cost and pricing information to demonstrate that any changes are reasonable and justified.

“In accordance with this decision, Sasol Gas must provide Nersa with cost and pricing information on a quarterly basis to demonstrate that adjustments to its maximum gas price are reasonable, justifiable and necessitated by cost variation.”

Sasol Gas provided the required data on 17 October 2025 for the period 1 January to 31 March 2026.

Nersa said it verified the information against contractual terms and performed integrity checks on reported gas volumes and acquisition costs, including corroborating the data with gas flow information from Mozambique.

Following this review, the regulator approved a maximum gas price of R85.10/GJ per annum for Quarter 3 of FY2025/26—down from R90.57/GJ in the previous quarter.

“The decrease is primarily attributed to costs associated with new gas from Mozambique, driven by movements in oil-linked derivatives, exchange rate fluctuations and changes in the US Producer Price Index (USPPI),” Nersa said

Nomfundo Maseti, Full-Time Regulator Member Primarily Responsible for Piped-Gas Regulation, said that for clarity, stressed that a decrease in the maximum gas price does not automatically translate into an equivalent cut in the prices customers pay.

“It is expected of Sasol Gas to charge actual gas prices lower than the maximum price,” she said.

Nersa added that the adjustment is a positive step as it reduces the maximum price to a lower level where customers will benefit from lower prices that Sasol Gas will charge in line with the adjusted maximum price.

Ruse Moleshe, the managing director of RUBK, an energy and infrastructure consulting and advisory firm, said that the reduction in the maximum gas price provides some relief for Sasol Gas customers through lower energy/input costs.

“This eases pressure on operating expenses for industrial and commercial customers. It is, however, important to note that this does not mean a downward trend in prices, but a quarterly review (Jan-March 2025).”

Moleshe added that after March 2026, Nersa will issue a new determination.

“The price could therefore go up or down depending on market conditions. Nersa's regulatory methodology ensures regular reviewing instead of locking in long-term prices.”

Earlier this month, Sasol announced significant progress in the development of a Methane Rich Gas (MRG) supply solution aimed at ensuring continuity of gas supply to the South African market beyond June 2028.

“As natural gas production from Mozambique declines, Sasol has proactively explored alternative solutions to bridge the anticipated supply gap,” Sasol said.

“The company has confirmed the technical feasibility of supplying MRG from its Secunda operations to external customers for a limited bridging period from July 2028 to June 2030. This initiative forms part of Sasol’s broader strategy to safeguard the gas market and enable a smooth transition to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a long-term solution.”

Dumisani Bengu, senior vice president for marketing and sales energy at Sasol Gas, said that Sasol remains committed to supporting the South African industrial gas market.

“The MRG solution provides a critical supply bridge while LNG infrastructure is being developed, and we are engaging customers to ensure alignment on this approach.”

BUSINESS REPORT