Trade conditions in SA remain weak as Sacci index stays in negative territory

South Africa’s trade environment remained firmly in negative territory in October, according to the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) Trade Conditions Survey, released on Tuesday.

The composite trade index came in at 46, unchanged from the year-to-date average and still below the neutral 50 level, signalling continued pressure on businesses.

Sacci said that both global and domestic economic developments continue to weigh on the sector.

“The negative conditions continue and are evident from the Sacci Trade Conditions Surveys for some time now. In October 2025, trade conditions were still in negative territory with the composite survey index at 46 – it is below the neutral level of 50,” it said.

In the first 10 months of 2025, the average for the composite trade index was also 46.

The latest survey shows that 54% of respondents reported worse trade conditions compared with October 2024. Optimism about future trade conditions has also softened: while 69% of participants in the May survey expected conditions to improve over the next six months, this had slipped to 61% in October.

Sacci said declining sales expectations, lower new orders, weakening supplier deliveries and reduced stock levels all contributed to the fall in forward-looking confidence. Global trade shifts have not yet fully filtered through to local operations, but the uncertainty is already affecting sentiment.

However, Sacci said that opportunities remain for South Africa to expand international trade if both government and the private sector take proactive steps.

“The global trade changes and the direct and multiplying effect it has on local trade have not yet completely impacted local businesses, but uncertainty did affect expectations," it said.

"It appears that actions to complement South Africa’s foreign trade may still be available to optimise established and new international trade opportunities.”

Sacci added that the private sector must play a useful part in nurturing and expanding such global trade opportunities.

Inflation remains contained, with consumer inflation at 3.4% and producer inflation at 2.3% in September 2025. Lower fuel prices have eased cost pressures, though rising municipal tariffs and property rates may keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Sacci also cautioned that the move to lower the inflation target to 3% will require “strict discipline” on price and tariff adjustments across both public and private sectors.

Weak export and import volumes, reduced real values of building plans passed, and rising electricity tariffs have further dampened confidence. With conditions subdued, businesses employed fewer workers in October and expect staffing levels to remain under pressure in the coming months.

North-West University Business School economist, Professor Raymond Parsons, said the survey highlights the “mixed nature” of South Africa’s slow economic recovery.

“However, the recent surge of positive economic developments, ranging from the well-received MTBPS to the S&P’s upgrade of SA’s investment status, may now begin to improve the business mood. It could then also move future trade conditions out of persistent negative territory.”

Ulrich Joubert, an independent economist, said the results “do not make for good reading,” pointing to negative expectations and persistent uncertainty.

“We must keep in mind that, given the international environment, the uncertainty created there by, first of all, the trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on worldwide trade, it affects the South African international trade, and, therefore, it creates negative trade conditions,” Joubert said.

“We look at the situation in South Africa. It seems to me that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the new inflation target of 3%. People think that because of that, we will sit in a situation where interest rates will remain higher for longer, and, therefore, it will have a negative impact on trade conditions in South Africa. If we look at this environment, there are some indications that everything is not that bad. However  at the same time, these uncertainties still remain.”

Dawie Roodt, an independent economist, said that this is concerning.

“However, the recent good news such as the inflation target being revised to 3%, S&P Global’s upgrades of South Africa’s sovereign credit ratings, and South Africa exiting greylisting haven't filtered through to the survey," Roodt said.

"However, this will have an impact; it could well be that GDP will be lower than 1% for 2025.”

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