Black Friday offers a deep insight into South Africa's economy

According to Anchor Capital economist Casey Sprake, Black Friday 2025 is shaping up to be more than a retail rush – it could reveal the country’s underlying economic momentum.

Black Friday is “a surprisingly valuable gauge of the country’s economic momentum,” said Sprake.

IOL research shows that if spending over the upcoming weekend rises moderately from the R139 billion recorded in 2024, say by 5–10%, 2025 Black Friday spend could hit R146 billion to R153 billion.

On the upside, Black November in total could exceed R160 billion, assuming favourable economic conditions. But if headwinds intensify, growth could slow, or spending might plateau or even contract.

Sprake said investors are already positioning themselves around the spending data because “it has evolved into a meaningful barometer of consumer sentiment, household resilience, and underlying demand conditions.”

Trends in volumes, durable goods purchases, online activity and transactional intensity “collectively provide a remarkably clear snapshot of consumer sentiment, household financial resilience, and broader demand-side conditions,” she said.

The event would reveal “the durability of South Africa’s consumption cycle, the robustness of high-income spending, and the extent to which middle-income strain may weigh on broader domestic demand.”

Black Friday this year comes amid “surprisingly robust” monthly consumer data, Sprake said.

Retail and motoring trends also point to strength. “Together, these trends point to a relatively healthy consumer base heading into the spending-heavy November period,” she said.

But cracks beneath the surface remain.

Sprake warned that the slip in the latest FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index “is a clear signal that households remain cautious.”

“There is ongoing anxiety about job security, rising costs, and the general economic outlook,” she said.

Middle-income households, which dominate mass-market retail spending, are under acute pressure.

“The pressure on this income segment suggests that, while Black Friday activity may be strong at the top end, participation across the broader consumer base could be increasingly selective,” Sprake said.

By contrast, she noted that “high-income households… have maintained stable sentiment,” and are likely to drive big-ticket Black Friday categories such as electronics, appliances, premium fashion and home upgrades.

Savings trends add another warning sign.

Sprake said that after briefly improving, household savings rates are “drifting lower again,” showing that consumers are drawing on reserves or credit to cope with cost pressures.

“This matters for Black Friday because consumers with shrinking financial cushions tend to concentrate spending into a narrower set of necessity-driven or opportunistic purchases, rather than broad-based discretionary splurges,” she said.

BUSINESS REPORT