Trump's G20 exclusion of South Africa raises concerns over diplomatic relations

Concern has been raised following the announcement by US President Donald Trump that South Africa will not be invited to next year’s G20 in Miami in the US and suspension of all payments and subsidies to South Africa.

Ismail Joosub from the FW de Klerk Foundation said that in a series of statements this week, President Donald Trump declared that South Africa will “not be invited” to next year’s G20 Summit in Miami - a claim made on the back of wholly false allegations of “genocide” and state-sanctioned land seizures targeting Afrikaners.

Joosub added that these statements are not only factually incorrect; they are diplomatically untenable. “G20 membership is not determined by the host country. South Africa is an equal, sovereign member of the G20 in its own right and no single state - including the United States - has the authority to unilaterally expel another. This is not a private convention where invitations can be withdrawn on a whim, but a consensus-driven forum representing 80% of the global economy.”

Joosub said that the Presidency has emphasised that the United States voluntarily boycotted the Johannesburg G20, then criticised the protocol of a handover ceremony it chose not to attend. 

Andre Thomashausen, a renowned expert in international law from the University of South Africa, said that although it is true that South Africa is one of the original 20 members of the G20, the US under President Trump could instruct its Department of Homeland Security and Customs and Border Protection to turn away or detain any South African G20 delegates arriving uninvited. “If such a drastic rejection would happen, it would signal a complete breakdown of relations.About 10% of South Africa's trade globally is with the US, i.e. nearly $6 billion (R102 Billion), with a significant $1.3 billion (R22 Billion) trade surplus in favour of South Africa, any worsening of relations between the US and South Africa would have a devastating effect on the lives of all South Africans. Instead of a further escalation of the recent war of words, careful diplomacy should be allowed to rebuild what used to be an unwavering partnership.”

Political analyst Siyabonga Ntombela from the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) said that South Africa stands to lose showcasing its investment opportunities “The US is a huge market that South Africa cannot afford to lose. Considering there are more than 600 US companies operating in South Africa, if all of this happens, South Africa will lose more than 0.5% of its GDP next year. Politically, there are existing tensions between South Africa and the US. The non-invite will continue to divide the two countries and South Africa, as a small economy on the global scale, will eventually be the casualty.”

UKZN political science lecturer Zakhele Ndlovu said that the problem here is that the ANC often conflates its interests with those of the country. “In taking Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), it provoked the US, Israel's closest ally. Ramaphosa should be very concerned if he cares about the country's future. South Africa is punching above its weight. The US is a superpower and it will use its power to punish South Africa both economically and politically. In expelling Rasool earlier this year, the US sent a strong message that it no longer considers South Africa a country with which it can have constructive engagement. We also saw the US impose a 30% tariff on South African goods.”

In a statement, President Cyril Ramaphosa said that he noted the regrettable statement by President Donald Trump on South Africa’s participation in the 2026 G20 meetings. “As one of the founding members of the G20, South Africa has always valued the spirit of consensus, collaboration and partnership that defines the G20 as the premier forum for international economic cooperation. In keeping with this approach, the United States was expected to participate in all the meetings of the G20 during South Africa’s Presidency, but unfortunately, it elected not to attend the G20 Leaders Summit in Johannesburg out of its own volition.”

Ramaphosa added that we are, however, pleased that US entities such as businesses and civil society organisations participated in large numbers in G20-related activities such as the B20 and the G20 Social. “South Africa values their participation. South Africa is a member of the G20 in its own name and right. Its G20 membership is at the behest of all other members. South Africa is a sovereign constitutional democratic country and does not appreciate insults from another country about its membership and worth in participating in global platforms. South Africa respects the sovereignty of all countries and will never insult or demean another country. South Africa will continue to participate as a full, active and constructive member of the G20.”

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