Fuel prices set to decrease: What consumers can expect in 2026

Experts have welcomed the big drops in petrol and diesel prices which came into effect on Wednesday and remain positive for more drops in the petrol price in 2026.

Minister of Mineral Resources and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe said that the average international product prices of petrol followed the decreasing trend of crude oil. “The average international product prices of petrol followed the decreasing trend of crude oil.”

Mantashe added that based on current local and international factors, the fuel prices for January 2026 will be adjusted as follows: Petrol 93 (ULP & LRP): Sixty-two cents per litre (62.00 c/l) decrease. Petrol 95 (ULP & LRP): Sixty-six cents per litre (66.00 c/l) decrease. Diesel (0.05% sulphur): One hundred and thirty-seven cents per litre (137.00 c/l) decrease. Diesel (0.005% sulphur): One hundred and fifty cents per litre (150.00 c/l) decrease.

Ulrich Joubert, an independent economist, said that it is good news because for the same volume of petrol or diesel that we put into our vehicles, we pay less. “It leaves a little bit of extra money in our pockets to look after our debts or to buy consumer goods or to buy the school-going necessities that the children need to pay the school fees, to pay the electricity bills, the water bills, or any other expenses.”

Joubert added that the main factor is actually in the transportation of goods. “If we look at the big trucks travelling on our roads, then it indicates that they are going to pay more than a Rand less for the diesel that they put into their vehicles in transporting the goods from the harbours, from the storerooms to the shops to where  consumers are buying these products. So, it assists in bringing down the cost of doing business. If we look at the agricultural sector, then, this is very good news in the sense that it assists these farmers to control the cost of getting the crops eventually onto the shelves, whether those shelves are within South Africa or in the international markets.”

Joubert added that the indications are on the international side that we could see an oversupply of oil into the international world energy markets, which tells us that the oil price could even weaken further from the current level of around $60 (R989) per barrel. “We assume that the oil price could decline further during the course of 2026.”

Johan Els, the group chief economist at PSG Financial Services, said the significant cut in the petrol and diesel prices at the start of January is very good news for consumers, easing the financial burden and helping significantly in terms of the inflation trajectory."The prospects for the rest of the year are also very positive, given that the Rand has strengthened substantially and that I expect further strengthening in the Rand during the rest of this year.”

Els added that in combination with a low oil price, his expectations are that the oil price will hover around $60 (R989) per barrel for the rest of this year and that the oil price thus will lead to further petrol price cuts over the next few months. “I expect the petrol price to be relatively stable this year and I do not expect significant petrol price increases. Petrol prices are volatile on a monthly basis. This is because the Rand and oil prices are relatively stable. A stable to stronger Rand exchange rate will also make it easier for the Reserve Bank to cut rates.”

Gavin Kelly, the CEO of the Road Freight Association, said positive changes in fuel prices mean good things for consumers. “The RFA is encouraged by the recently announced decreases in the basic fuel prices - and remains cautiously optimistic that this trend will continue into the year. It must always be foremost in the minds of consumers that this drop (and all decreases or increases) in the fuel price is fundamentally driven by external international factors.”

Kelly added that consumers should start to feel changes within a couple of weeks - as current stocks are depleted and depending on what approach retailers will take. “The RFA notes that smaller operators (transporters) who do not have long-term contracts that may offer some cushioning effect to the direct fuel input costs will be able to breathe easier.”

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