SA may get US tariffs slashed to 15 percent after Supreme Court ruling

Following the US Supreme Court ruling on Friday that President Donald Trump’s imposition of global tariffs are illegal, the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) believes that the US will place a 15% tariff on all imports.

Wandile Sihlobo, Chief economist at Agbiz said that it appears that the US will now place a 15% tariff on all imports, seemingly replacing the previous higher tariffs before the US Supreme Court judgment. “If this is a new possibility, then it will bode well for South Africa. The 15% tariff will be a great relief from the 30% we have struggled with in the past few months.”

Sihlobo added that there remains profound uncertainty about these issues as the US administration seeks to explore ways to maintain the higher tariffs we faced before the Supreme Court’s judgment. “For us in South Africa’s agriculture, our competitors in the US market faced much lower tariffs, around 10%, and managed to take our market share in some products.”

Sihlobo said that the US remains an important market for South Africa, accounting for about 4% of our exports. “The main exported products include citrus, berries, grapes, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts, among others.”

Sihlobo added that some South African exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause on the higher tariffs in 2025 and exported more volume than usual during the second quarter of the year. “We saw some cooling in exports in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Notably, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, at $144 million (R2.3 billion).”

Sihlobo said that in the last quarter of 2025, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US fell sharply by 39% to $81 million (R1.2 billion).

“From an annual perspective, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US in 2025 totalled $504 million (R8 billion), down 3% from the previous year. This slight annual decline doesn’t suggest that the 30% 'Liberation Day tariffs' aren’t affecting the industry; we benefited from substantial exports in the second quarter. We believe that in 2026, we will be able to get a clearer picture of the impact of all these tariffs, and hopefully, the 15% tariff will remain in place for some time,” he said.

Francois Rossouw, the CEO of the Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), said the ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States declaring President Donald Trump’s tariffs unlawful introduces both opportunity and risk for South African agriculture.

“If it leads to a rollback of tariffs and a return to predictable, rules-based trade, it could strengthen export prospects for products like citrus, wine, nuts and fruit by restoring stability in the US market; however, if it triggers prolonged legal and political uncertainty in the United States, that volatility will continue to distort pricing, contracts and planning cycles for farmers who operate on long-term production decisions and depend on consistent access to global markets,” he said.

Dr Sakhile Hadebe, a lecturer in Political Science and International Relations at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN), said that the Supreme Court of the United States has now drawn a firm constitutional line: the President does not have unilateral authority under IEEPA to impose tariffs. “For South Africa, the immediate implication is reduced exposure to sudden, politically driven tariff shocks from Washington. Over the past decade, global markets have been rattled by abrupt executive tariff measures often justified on “emergency” or national security grounds.”

Hadebe added that this judgment makes it clear that sweeping tariff regimes cannot be imposed at presidential discretion. “They now require clear congressional authorization. For Pretoria, this restores a degree of predictability. South African exports whether automotive components, minerals, citrus, or manufactured goods depend on stable market access. The ruling lowers the risk of overnight tariff escalations tied to executive proclamations. It strengthens the principle that trade measures must pass through legislative scrutiny rather than executive impulse.”

BUSINESS REPORT