Stats SA’s Manufacturing Production and Sales for January 2026 released on Thursday indicated that manufacturing production decreased by 0.7% in January 2026 compared with January 2025
Image: Simphiwe Mbokazi/Independent Newspapers
StatsSA’s Manufacturing Production and Sales for January 2026 released on Thursday indicated that manufacturing production decreased by 0.7% in January 2026 compared with January 2025. The news followed last week’s release of the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February, which indicated the PMI lost ground in February, with the headline index declining from 48.7 to 47.4.
StatsSA added that the largest negative contributions were made by the wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing division (-11.0% and contributing -1.3 percentage points) and the basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery division (-5.7% and contributing -1.2 percentage points).
StatsSA said that the petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products division was the largest positive contributor (6.7% and contributing 1.4 percentage points).
“Seasonally adjusted manufacturing production increased by 1.5% in January 2026 compared with December 2025. This followed month-on-month changes of -1.3% in December 2025 and -2.2% in November 2025,” added StatsSA.
StatsSA added that seasonally adjusted manufacturing production decreased by 1.7% in the three months ended January 2026 compared with the previous three months. “Seven of the ten manufacturing divisions reported negative growth rates over this period. The following divisions reported the largest negative contribution: basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-3.3% and contributing -0.7 of a percentage point); motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment (-6.4% and contributing -0.5 of a percentage point); and food and beverages (-1.7% and contributing -0.4 of a percentage point).”
StatsSA said that seasonally adjusted manufacturing sales increased by 2.8% in January 2026 compared with December 2025. This followed month-on-month changes of -4.5% in December 2025 and -0.7% in November 2025. Seasonally adjusted manufacturing sales decreased by 3.3% in the three months ended January 2026 compared with the previous three months. The largest negative contributions were made by the motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment division (-15.8% and contributing -2.4 percentage points) and the food and beverages division (-1.9% and contributing -0.5 of a percentage point).
Lara Hodes, Investec economist, said that manufacturing production conversely contracted in January, albeit modestly by 0.7% y/y; this follows December’s -1.5% y/y (revised) slide. The wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing category and the basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery division sliced a combined -2.5% off the headline reading on declines in production of -11.0% y/y and -5.7% y/y respectively.
Hodes added that specifically the basic iron and steel sub-category decreased by a marked -34.0% y/y in January.
“While manufacturing conditions globally were more favourable at the beginning of the year, according to PMI survey results, domestically the sector continued to face a number of challenges including elevated US tariffs which were only eased late February,” she said.
Professor Waldo Krugell, an economist at North-West University, said that it looks like the recession in manufacturing is continuing.
“The sector is really struggling for different reasons, but I think one big reason is a flood of cheap imports that they have to compete with. The second big reason is localised supply-side barriers, such as local power interruptions, local water interruptions, and still relatively high-cost logistics. Additionally, weak demand on both the domestic and export sides means that the sector has faced ongoing challenges,” he said.
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