Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) said that export estimates released on 1 April point to continued growth in the industry.
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The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) expects another solid export season in 2026, with overall citrus volumes projected to rise between 3% and 5%, even as the industry navigates mounting global uncertainty and logistical challenges.
According to export estimates released on 1 April, South Africa is set to ship between 210 million and 215 million 15kg cartons of citrus this year, excluding late mandarins. The projected increase reflects continued expansion in production capacity, particularly from younger orchards coming into full yield.
CGA CEO Boitshoko Ntshabele said the industry remains cautiously optimistic, despite risks linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt demand, shipping routes and fuel availability.
“Should all that is possible be done to limit the impact of these factors, steady growth towards another record export season is within reach. The CGA has invested significantly in its data and market intelligence capacity, as well as specialist monitoring and review forums to make timeous adjustments to estimates and support key stakeholders with capacity planning in the logistics chain to help ensure a stable supply to the markets,” he said.
“The global environment impacting the season will likely mean that everyone will need to be highly responsive and adaptable, but we have weathered such large challenges in the past,” added Ntshabele.
CGA said that 45.9 million 15kg cartons of Lemons can be exported to key markets, which represents a 10% increase from last year's exported figure of 41.6 million 15kg cartons. “The increase in lemon exports is due to a significant number of young trees coming into production in the Sundays River Valley, as well as the Senwes (Marble Hall and Groblersdal) region's recovery from hail damage in past seasons.”
CGA added that predictions show a figure of 30 million 15kg cartons for Navel oranges, a 5% reduction on 2025’s record exports. “It is still, however, in line with the long-term growth trajectory, being a 10% increase on 2024 volumes.).”
CGA said that the valencia orange export crop increased 1.6% from last year’s 62 million 15kg cartons to a figure of 63 million cartons for 2026.
“It is important to note that last year saw an exceptional increase in Valencia volumes in practically all regions due to optimal growing conditions. In the current season, yields are expected to normalise, although regional differences need to be taken into account. Favourable weather in the northern regions underpins increased estimates of between 4 and 17% above 2025 volumes; the floods that occurred in January did not cause significant damage to orchards or affect yields.”
CGA added that grapefruit exports are estimated at 15.7 million 17kg cartons. This is a significant 16% increase from the 13.5 million 17kg cartons that were packed for export last year.
“The increase can mostly be attributed to optimal growing conditions; however, early feedback suggests a somewhat smaller fruit size. Wet conditions in the northern areas have disrupted early harvesting of grapefruit to an extent.”
CGA said that the estimates of three early Mandarin varieties are available: the satsuma season is likely to, again, as in 2024, close around the 1.5 million 15kg cartons mark.
“The nova season shows a 3% decrease to 5.6 million 15kg cartons, while clementines project a decrease of 4%, with an expected export figure of 6.2 million 15kg cartons.”
Ntshabele said that considering the global instability, it is essential that attention be given to factors which are within South Africa's control and can unlock the potential of our citrus export sector.
“A number of constraints can be addressed to secure the future growth of our industry. Enhanced market access to China, India, and the United States would provide a meaningful boost to the industry," he said.
Ntshabele concluded that the European Union’s unnecessary and unscientific plant health requirements for South African citrus are also a constraint and remain unresolved. Improved logistics efficiency - especially in the rail network - will require greater participation from the private sector.
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