Trump’s second term: A rare opportunity for real African energy independence

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 marks a defining moment for Africa’s fossil fuel industry. Within weeks of his inauguration, his administration reapproved a $4.7 billion (R86bn) loan from the US Export-Import Bank (Exim) for TotalEnergies’ liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Mozambique.

This funding, first greenlit during Trump’s initial term in 2020, languished under President Joe Biden’s tenure, reflecting the latter’s aversion to fossil fuel initiatives. The swift revival of this loan signals a new era of US-Africa collaboration - one that prioritises energy development over ideological resistance to hydrocarbons and the pervasive influence of the global Green Agenda.

The African Energy Chamber (AEC) believes Africa must seize this fleeting opportunity. For decades, international pressure has pushed African nations to abandon fossil fuels in favour of renewables, often ignoring the continent’s immediate needs. While renewable energy holds a place in Africa’s long-term future, fossil fuels - oil, gas, and coal - remain the backbone of any realistic plan for industrialisation and economic upliftment.

These are not abstract ambitions; they are urgent necessities for a continent where millions lack reliable power. Trump’s energy-first ethos aligns with this reality, offering Africa a chance to unlock substantial funding and expertise for a wide range of fossil fuel projects, from offshore giants to onshore ventures and exploratory wildcat wells.

The Mozambique LNG project exemplifies what’s possible. Initially stalled by security concerns and Biden-era hesitancy, its revival under Trump cuts through bureaucratic inertia with striking efficiency. The $4.7bn infusion will bolster Mozambique’s economy, create jobs, and position the country as a key LNG exporter. More broadly, it sends a powerful message to other African nations: under Trump, America is once again open for business.

This contrasts sharply with Biden’s administration, which viewed fossil fuel development with suspicion, often prioritising climate rhetoric over practical partnerships. Trump’s “drill baby drill” mantra, though rooted in an “America First” philosophy, dovetails neatly with Africa’s own energy aspirations. The continent should mirror this mindset, positioning itself as a prime destination for American investment.

Coal’s Potential Resurgence

One of Trump’s domestic priorities - reviving clean coal production in the U. - offers a compelling model for Africa. Globally, coal is vilified, yet its advantages are undeniable: it’s abundant, affordable, and often requires less external financing than other energy sources. China’s unapologetic expansion of coal production underscores its utility, and Trump’s willingness to buck international anti-coal sentiment could embolden African leaders to follow suit. For nations grappling with energy poverty, coal isn’t a dirty word - it’s a lifeline. South Africa, with its vast coal reserves, could lead the way by adopting cleaner technologies to balance affordability and environmental concerns. Smaller countries, too, could tap into untapped deposits, powering grids and meeting export demands without fear of US opposition.

This isn’t about rejecting renewables outright but recognising coal’s role as a bridge. Across Africa, millions lack electricity, and coal offers a rapid, cost-effective solution while infrastructure for gas, solar, or wind matures. Trump’s indifference to global campaigns against coal provides African governments with the political cover to reopen shuttered mines and develop new ones. This could transform energy access, particularly in rural areas where grid expansion lags, and establish Africa as the last bastion of coal production - a pragmatic stance for a continent too often dictated to by wealthier nations.

Unleashing Fossil Fuels

Looking beyond coal, Trump’s four-year term offers Africa a rare window to pursue an aggressive fossil fuel agenda. The continent should unite under an “Africa First” banner, embracing its own “drill baby drill” mentality. This means accelerating every promising oil and gas project, slashing regulatory red tape, and fostering a diverse energy ecosystem. Nigeria’s experience with the Petroleum Industry Act - proposed in 2008, signed in 2021, yet still sluggishly implemented - illustrates how bureaucracy stifles progress. A Trump-inspired push could clear such hurdles, attracting investment and speeding development. Similarly, resolving security challenges, like those that drove US.firms from Libya, could restore confidence and capital inflows.

Offshore projects, like Mozambique’s LNG, will remain central, but onshore opportunities are equally vast. Wildcat wells - high-risk, high-reward exploratory drilling in unproven areas - could uncover new reserves, while empowering small, independent operators could diversify the industry. Rather than relying solely on multinational giants, supporting local firms would spread economic benefits, foster entrepreneurship, and strengthen energy security. Trump’s administration, with its focus on deregulation and energy independence at home, is unlikely to obstruct these efforts. Indeed, it may actively support them through financing and technical aid, as seen with the Exim loan. This partnership could extend to training programmes, technology transfers, and joint ventures, amplifying Africa’s capacity to harness its resources.

Balancing Development and Climate Concerns

Critics will argue that this fossil fuel push clashes with global climate goals, but Africa’s calculus differs. The continent accounts for a tiny fraction of global emissions yet suffers disproportionately from energy poverty. Fossil fuels offer a proven, swift path to electrification and industrialisation—prerequisites for lifting millions out of poverty. Trump’s dismissal of international climate orthodoxy, while contentious, grants Africa breathing room to prioritise development over premature decarbonisation. This isn’t a rejection of green energy but an acknowledgement that renewables alone cannot yet meet Africa’s pressing needs. Fossil fuels can fund and facilitate a just transition, building the economic foundation for sustainable technologies to thrive later.

Take Nigeria’s Niger Delta as an example. Regulatory uncertainty and security threats have long hampered its oil and gas sector. An “Africa First” approach could drive reforms to stabilise the region, restarting stalled projects and luring American firms eager to invest in a Trump-backed climate. In Libya, resolving security issues could revive a once-thriving oil industry, drawing back U.S. companies that fled amid chaos. Across the continent, small operators could flourish with lighter regulations, drilling wildcat wells and tapping overlooked reserves. The payoff would be transformative: energy abundance, economic growth, and a robust U. partnership.

Seizing a Historic Opportunity

Trump’s presidency could redefine Africa’s energy landscape. With US interference diminished, the continent can pursue a multi-pronged strategy - ramping up natural gas for global markets, reviving coal for domestic grids, and tapping onshore and offshore potential. South Africa could pioneer clean coal innovations, while nations like Nigeria and Libya could leverage oil and gas to reclaim economic momentum. Smaller players, empowered by deregulation, could unlock new frontiers, ensuring wealth reaches beyond corporate boardrooms.

This vision demands bold leadership. Governments must dismantle obstructive policies, address security risks, and court foreign investment. The $4.7bn Mozambique loan is a starting point - a proof of concept for what US collaboration can achieve. Africa’s leaders must now shed the shackles of the Biden era’s hesitancy and chart a course toward energy sovereignty. The tools are ready: offshore rigs, onshore fields, wildcat wells, and a willing ally in Washington. The anti-carbon lobby will protest, but Africa’s needs outweigh its rhetoric.

Trump’s second term could be remembered as the moment Africa’s fossil fuel industry came of age, forging a shared vision of energy abundance with the US. With four years of opportunity ahead, Africa should build, mine, and drill like never before. If it doesn’t act now, the wait for another chance like this could be long indeed.

NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber.

*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL.

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