A slowing of the global economy was likely to reduce expansion of trade in goods this year to 6.5 percent from 9 percent in 2004, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said yesterday.
The world economy grew 4 percent last year, the strongest annual growth rate in more than a decade, despite record high crude oil prices, the WTO said.
For 2005, gross domestic product (GDP) growth was expected to be between 3 percent and 3.5 percent, and the WTO forecast that interest rate hikes in developed markets and high energy prices would weigh on economic activity.
"Changes in global GDP growth typically lead to even larger changes in global trade growth," it said.
Global GDP last year was more broadly dispersed regionally than in the previous three years, "providing a solid foundation for an acceleration in world trade growth", the WTO said.
The strong growth boosted merchandise trade growth to nearly 10 percent at mid-year, but weaker economic growth in the second half eroded the gains.
The WTO expected that import demand in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America would remain relatively strong.
By contrast, the weakness of the dollar would weigh on exports from Japan and parts of Europe.
Developing countries' share of the world goods trade surged 31 percent higher in 2004, a record pace since trade statistics were first established in 1950.
In nominal terms, the exports of poor countries had shot up because of higher commodity prices. Africa, for example, saw its exports rise 30 percent in nominal terms, but only 6 percent in real terms from 2003.
Asia was the champion in export growth last year, with a rise of 14.5 percent in real terms. China became the largest merchandise trader in Asia and the third-largest goods exporter. It was already the largest importer in 2003.