IMF says US economy slowing but doesn’t forecast recession

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees the US economy shifting into a lower gear this year as President Donald Trump pushes forward with aggressive tariffs but doesn’t see a recession on the horizon.

“Large policy shifts have been announced and the incoming data is signaling a slowdown in economic activity from the very strong pace in 2024,” IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday. “All of this said, recession is not part of our baseline.”

Trump has unleashed an array of tariff threats, with some already in place for top trading partners Canada, Mexico and China, and more expected April 2. His administration has also targeted sectors like automobiles and industrial metals, aimed at boosting American manufacturing and employment.

Revised data released Thursday showed the economy expanded in the fourth quarter at 2.4%, faster than previously estimated. Forecasters are generally anticipating slower US growth this year as consumers and businesses are rattled by Trump’s trade war.

Surveys of consumers and businesses are increasingly pointing to some deterioration ahead. Americans’ expectations of their finances fell to a record low in early March as they anticipate higher prices ahead due to tariffs.

“We are in the process of assessing the impact of all of these announcements” on tariffs and will include them in the update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) to be released in April, Kozack said. She added that the fund is undertaking an analysis of how the moves will impact countries and regions, reiterating that Canada and Mexico will likely see a “significant adverse impact” if tariffs are sustained.

The IMF in January forecast the US to grow 2.7% this year after a 2.8% pace in 2024. The new WEO estimates are expected to be released April 22.

BLOOMBERG