Business Report Markets

Global events keep rand in tow

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Johannesburg - The rand was little changed from levels seen late on Friday in early Monday trade, as the currency continues to respond to international events, in this case the weaker close on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 120.9 points on Friday.

By 8.35am the rand was bid at R7.6628 to the dollar from a previous close of R7.6847. It was bid at R11.7756 to the euro from a previous R11.8792 and at R14.9226 against the pound from R14.9781 before.

The euro was bid at $1.5387 from $1.5457 overnight, while gold was quoted at $883.85 per ounce from $884.70 overnight.

RMB analysts said in their morning report US equity market weakness on Friday has taken rand back to the R7.70 level.

"With little data or events to affect, look for a 7.63 - 7.75 range for today. US retail sales tomorrow and CPI Wednesday will then provide further direction," they said.

ETM analysts said in their morning report the rand will continue to eye developments in the Bharti Airtel and MTN talks, after the local unit was buoyed last weak by the prospects of a deal.

"Adding uncertainty to currency market at present is also the surge in oil prices, with levels above $126.00 per barrel achieved on NYMEX. Such high oil prices are bound to have a detrimental impact on growth. Expectations of a slowdown in growth have affected Wall St and are permeating many international stock markets.

"Expectations are rising that tight credit markets, cautious lending practices by banks and a deteriorating international growth environment will begin to weigh on stock market valuations," they said.

Dow Jones Newswires reported the euro is lower against the dollar on Monday, while both are higher against the yen. But it is premature to suggest the dollar has turned around and is set for a big recovery, said Sonray chief economist Clifford Bennett.

On Friday, the dollar declined against the euro and yen on a resurgence of risk aversion after the credit crunch struck AIG's earnings and oil continued to set record highs.

The resulting spike in risk aversion sent the dollar to an intraday low of ¥102.61 - its lowest value since mid-April. The euro declined to ¥158.60. Now, currency analysts say the euro is likely headed back up against the greenback.

The euro "appears to finally have completed its sharp two-and-a-half week decline," said Andrew Chaveriat, technical foreign exchange analyst at BNP Paribas in New York.

The next levels for resistance for the euro are $1.5440 and $1.5570, he said.