Max Verstappen's tiny chance to pip Oscar Piastri for the title

As Formula 1 charges into the final stretch of the 2025 season, McLaren’s dominance since the mid-season break has painted a picture few thought possible at the start of the year.

Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris have led the way, turning the papaya-orange cars into the benchmark for consistency and raw pace. Yet, in the background, the reigning champion Max Verstappen remains an outside contender with a less than one in a thousand chance of beating Piastri on points. 

After his win at Baki, the question is: could Verstappen really pull off a near impossible comeback and snatch the title from McLaren’s new star, Oscar Piastri?

On paper, the task seems insurmountable. Piastri sits on 324 points, Norris on 299, while Verstappen trails in third with 255. That leaves a 69-point deficit between the Red Bull driver and the current leader with just seven Grand Prix races and three sprint events left on the calendar.

With a maximum of 199 points still available, the Dutchman’s pursuit is more a statistical curiosity than a realistic expectation. Still, Verstappen’s experience cannot be dismissed.

Unlike Norris and Piastri, he has been through the crucible of championship-deciding battles multiple times, prevailing in three consecutive campaigns from 2021 to 2023.

That experience grants him a mental resilience in high-stakes situations, something his younger rivals are still learning. But the reality is that no amount of calmness or skill can erase the raw performance advantage McLaren have enjoyed in the second half of the season.

What Verstappen needs to do

For Verstappen to even entertain the notion of pipping Piastri to the crown, several conditions must align. First and foremost, he needs a flawless run. That means wins at nearly every remaining race, ideally complemented by sprint victories, to maximise his haul.

Realistically, Verstappen would need to score upwards of 160 of the 199 points still available to close the gap — a near-perfect campaign. Secondly, the McLaren duo must falter.

A combination of DNFs, strategic errors, or costly collisions would need to plague both Piastri and Norris for Verstappen to benefit.

That’s a tall order, given how bulletproof McLaren’s reliability and consistency have been since the summer. Finally, Red Bull themselves would need to find gains. The RB21 has shown flashes of speed but often falls short of McLaren’s pace over race distance.

Upgrades brought to recent rounds have narrowed the margin slightly, but Verstappen would need a significant step forward to string together the wins required.

AI Model prediction

An artificial intelligence model simulation run across 20,000 scenarios of the remaining races paints a sobering picture. In those simulations: Piastri won the title in roughly 85% of cases. Norris claimed it about 15% of the time.

Verstappen prevailed in a vanishingly small 0.09% of simulations — less than one in a thousand.

Even the model’s averages suggest Verstappen is set to finish around 367 points, compared with Piastri’s projected 441 and Norris’ 415.

The numbers make clear just how steep the mountain really is for the Champion if he wants to equal Michael Schumacher's record. 

What needs to happen in the paddock

For Verstappen’s tiny chance to materialise, the paddock dynamics would have to shift dramatically. McLaren’s reliability — which has been almost flawless — would need to wobble.

Tyre wear, pit stop mistakes, or even internal tension between Norris and Piastri could play into Red Bull’s hands.

On the Red Bull side, the team must deliver on strategy calls, avoid reliability issues, and perhaps even benefit from favourable weather or safety car interventions.

Team politics could also play a role. McLaren may eventually have to back one driver to secure the championship, potentially complicating Norris’s chances and consolidating Piastri’s lead. Verstappen, meanwhile, is free from intra-team rivalries, with Red Bull squarely focused on his campaign.

The verdict

In truth, Verstappen’s hopes hinge on a sequence of unlikely events — a perfect personal run coupled with repeated missteps from McLaren.

The numbers don’t lie: his chance of pulling it off sits under one-tenth of one percent.

Yet Formula 1 has a history of the improbable. From Kimi Räikkönen’s 2007 charge to Hamilton’s last-lap drama in 2008, championships can flip in a heartbeat. For Verstappen, the odds may be vanishingly small, but until the mathematics closes the door, he remains in the fight.

Stranger things have happened in Formula 1, but if he were to pip Piastri to the 2025 title, it would be the unlikeliest triumph of his career.