BRICS+ Series: The IMF’s Optimism and the Global South’s Quiet Resilience

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia, a signal that the Global South’s recovery story is far from over. According to its latest World Economic Outlook, regional GDP is expected to climb from 2.6% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, and further to 3.8% in 2026. This upward revision, an improvement of 0.5 percentage points from April’s forecast, highlights a quiet but steady transformation: emerging economies are adapting faster than anticipated, even amid trade wars, energy market shifts, and geopolitical pressure.

Yet behind this optimism lies a deeper narrative, one of autonomy and resilience in regions historically constrained by Western financial systems. As the IMF refines its projections, countries from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to North Africa are redefining their growth trajectories outside the traditional frameworks dominated by the West.

Oil, Diversification, and Strategic Realignment

The improved outlook is largely driven by GCC economies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where faster-than-expected oil production recoveries and non-oil growth are reshaping the region’s economic landscape. Saudi Arabia’s GDP is now forecast to expand by 4% in both 2025 and 2026, double its 2024 performance and 1% higher than earlier projections. The UAE is set to grow even faster — 4.8% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, buoyed by logistics, finance, and clean energy projects aligned with the country’s long-term diversification agenda.

In Kuwait, growth is projected to rebound from a 2.6% contraction in 2024 to a 2.6% expansion in 2025, while Qatar’s economy is expected to accelerate to a striking 6.1% by 2026, driven by the expansion of its North Field liquefied natural gas (LNG) project — one of the largest energy infrastructure projects in the world. Together, these figures reinforce a trend: energy producers of the Global South are learning to turn volatility into strategy.

The IMF attributes much of this momentum to the “faster-than-expected unwinding of oil production cuts” and renewed investor confidence, but the reality goes deeper. BRICS-aligned nations — including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, all recent BRICS+ members — are increasingly diversifying energy partnerships eastward, trading with China and India, and investing in shared infrastructure to reduce dependence on Western markets. This pivot reflects a growing belief that long-term stability lies in South-South cooperation, not Western prescriptions.

Egypt’s Recovery and Regional Adaptation

Egypt stands out as another bright spot in the IMF’s revision. Growth in telecoms, tourism, and non-oil manufacturing has offset the decline in Suez Canal revenues — a result of ongoing shipping disruptions linked to regional tensions. IMF Deputy Director Petya Koeva Brooks praised Egypt’s “buoyancy” in key industries and predicted “stabilisation in Suez Canal activity” by 2026.

For a country that faced years of economic strain under global inflation and currency shocks, this recovery is significant. It also demonstrates how Global South economies are learning to adapt to external shocks without the rigid austerity once prescribed by institutions like the IMF itself. Egypt’s improving fundamentals, coupled with S&P’s recent credit rating upgrade, signal growing investor confidence — but more importantly, they reflect an internal determination to diversify and modernise.

Tariff Wars and the Shadow of Protectionism

Still, optimism comes with caveats. The IMF’s report warns that U.S.-led tariff wars under President Donald Trump’s administration are already dampening global demand and putting downward pressure on commodity prices. While the Middle East and Central Asia remain somewhat shielded from direct levies, the indirect effects — weaker global trade flows and reduced investment appetite — could cut 0.8% off regional growth through 2026 compared to last year’s projections.

This resurgence of protectionism reveals the fragility of a global economy still overly dependent on Western political cycles. The irony is that while Washington advocates free trade in theory, its own tariffs risk undermining developing economies that rely on open markets for exports and investment. For many BRICS+ nations, this serves as another reminder of the need to build alternative financial and trading systems that are insulated from unilateral policy swings in the U.S. and Europe.

The BRICS+ Energy and Growth Nexus

The Gulf’s strong performance has implications far beyond the region. Within the expanding BRICS+ framework, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE play a pivotal role in shaping a new energy and investment network that links the Middle East with Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Their surpluses are increasingly being reinvested in sovereign wealth funds, infrastructure projects, and technology ventures that connect the Global South more tightly than ever before.

This marks a quiet shift from dependency to interdependence. Where the IMF once set the terms of development, nations are now using its forecasts as validation — not instruction. The new logic is pragmatic: cooperate globally, but negotiate from strength.

A Future Beyond Forecasts

While the IMF projects steady regional growth, the real story lies in the changing architecture of global finance. The Middle East’s resurgence is not just cyclical — it’s structural. As oil producers modernise, diversify, and build new partnerships under frameworks like BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the balance of economic power is slowly reorienting eastward.

The IMF’s projections, therefore, are not just numbers on a page. They reflect an era where the Global South is learning to navigate global turbulence with confidence — using oil, trade, and innovation not as tools of dependency, but as levers of sovereignty.

In a world shaken by protectionism and shifting alliances, the resilience of the Middle East and Central Asia shows one thing clearly: economic gravity is moving south. And this time, it’s not temporary — it’s transformation.

Written By: 

*Dr Iqbal Survé

Past chairman of the BRICS Business Council and co-chairman of the BRICS Media Forum and the BRNN

*Chloe Maluleke

Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group 

Russian & Middle Eastern Specialist

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