Godongwana's budget a litmus test for GNU, say analysts

As Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana prepares to table a revised national budget for the third time, political analysts say the Government of National Unity (GNU) is entering uncharted territory, one where compromise, consultation, and co-governance will define fiscal decision-making.

Godongwana will table the budget on Wednesday, May 21. 

Political analyst Zakhele Ndlovu from the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) noted that the African National Congress (ANC) is facing a new political reality. 

“Since 1994, the ANC has been getting away with imposing its budget priorities. It tried to do it again this year with the support of the IFP, UDM, PA, etc., but did not succeed,” he said. “The ANC has now learnt that it needs to consult and make compromises.”

Fellow UKZN analyst Siyabonga Ntombela agrees, suggesting that the budget process has become a microcosm of the broader GNU dynamics. “Politics is compromise; this will be played out in this budget speech,” he said. 

Ntombela added that if coalition partners see their concerns reflected or are at least consulted and persuaded, the budget could help “strengthen the GNU bond.”

This comes as Godongwana readies the 2025 national budget for its third presentation in Parliament, after two previous versions were derailed. The initial budget, scheduled for February, was delayed by disputes within the GNU over a proposed increase in Value-Added Tax (VAT). 

A revised version, proposed in March, proposed two staggered 0.5 percentage point VAT hikes, which met fierce resistance from coalition partners, particularly the Democratic Alliance (DA) and was ultimately blocked by the Western Cape High Court.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) also challenged the VAT hike in court. 

According to the analysts,now, with the ANC under pressure and the GNU still in its infancy, Wednesday’s budget will be a critical test of political collaboration. 

“If the third attempt to pass the budget succeeds,” Ndlovu said, “It will be the first time the ANC has learnt that it is in a co-governance arrangement.”

Failure to deliver on key public demands, both analysts warn, could erode trust in coalition governance. 

Ntombela cautioned that the public may begin to see coalition governments as ineffective: “It will have an adverse impact on the ANC’s upcoming local government election result.” Ndlovu said this, noting that if expectations aren’t met, “GNU partners will have to answer to voters in the next elections.”

hope.ntanzi@iol.co.za

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