‘Nuclear Option’: DA ready with no-confidence motion to oust Ramaphosa

Democratic Alliance Federal Council Chairperson Helen Zille says the party has a motion of no confidence against President Cyril Ramaphosa ready, but is cautious about using it, warning it could collapse the government.

“I very much doubt it,” Zille said when asked whether the ANC could survive such a motion if the DA were to proceed.

She was speaking to journalists outside the Cape Town Central police station, where the DA was filing criminal charges against Higher Education Minister Nobuhle Nkabane. 

Nkabane is accused of misleading Parliament and abusing her position by allegedly facilitating ANC cadre deployment in the appointment of Sector Education and Training Authority (SETA) board members.

“We certainly have a motion of no confidence against the president up our sleeve, but we always say that our action must be commensurate with the infringement,” Zille said.

Zille called the motion “the nuclear option.”

“We counted heads, and we think that we're going to have 196 or 197 votes out of 400. That's a lot of votes.”

She also cast doubt on the ANC’s ability to whip its full caucus into attending the vote.

“The ANC has never once yet in the history of our Parliament got all its parliamentarians into the House, even with a three-line whip,” she said.

Her comments come after the DA, the second-largest party in the Government of National Unity (GNU), signaled its intent to consider a motion against Ramaphosa following the dismissal of Deputy Trade and Industry Minister Andrew Whitfield, a senior DA member. Whitfield was fired over an unauthorised international trip.

In response, the DA withdrew from the National Dialogue process, a key inter-party consultation platform, but has not ruled out advancing the no-confidence motion.

Zille said that if the vote were conducted via secret ballot, the outcome could be even more damaging to the ANC.

“If it’s a secret ballot, that motion of no confidence would carry. But that would bring the government down. And then you have to think very carefully - Is the infringement commensurate with the action? Are there other mechanisms?” she said.

She added that the court case was filed by the party in February this year, saying the party is confident that it would win the case.

The party filed papers in the High Court to declare the act unconstitutional.

“With that, we could have done the same thing, but we did win in court,” she said.

Zille emphasised that the DA is not eager to topple the government, despite holding the power to do so.

“So before we bring the government down, we try every other avenue, because that’s what a responsible partner does. An irresponsible partner behaves like the ANC and carries on with corruption as if there’s no tomorrow,” she said.

“A responsible partner like the DA finds every single way of combating that and exposing that. And we hold the card of bringing down the government, but we will not use it lightly. We will use it when all other options have failed.”

Speaking with IOL News, political analyst Sitabonga Ntombela said ANC may send a delegation to engage with the DA in hopes of stopping its planned motion against President Cyril Ramaphosa, warning it could destabilise the Government of National Unity (GNU).

“I think they might resolve to send a task team that will engage the DA not to go ahead with the motion because that will destabilise the GNU,” said Ntombela.

The ANC’s National Working Committee (NWC) met on Monday afternoon to discuss the DA’s recent threats, including its withdrawal from the National dialogue, and the controversy surrounding Nkabane and the appointment of the Services Sector Education and Training Authority (SETA) board.

When asked whether he believed the DA’s motion could succeed, Ntombela agreed without hesitation.

“I believe the motion has the potential to succeed if the DA is willing to accept what it called the ‘doomsday coalition’ - by either co-opting the EFF, IFP, FF Plus, UDM, and MK Party, or working with them solely on the basis of removing Ramaphosa,” Ntombela told IOL News. 

“This is retaliation after their member was removed even after John (Steenhuisen) asked for 24 hours to handle the matter. It could also backfire and make the DA look opportunistic if their response to this is a motion that could cost South Africa millions.”

On Wednesday, IOL News reported that a motion from the DA could mark the end of Ramaphosa’s presidency.

Political analyst Professor Bheki Mngomezulu said that during the sixth administration, Ramaphosa survived votes due to the ANC’s majority in Parliament.

However, the party no longer has a majority after the May 2024 general election.

“If the DA proceeds, it will likely find support from smaller parties including the MK Party, EFF, and ATM,” Mngomezulu said. 

“Even if ActionSA votes against it, the rest could form the two-thirds majority needed - which would mean the end of Ramaphosa. But I don’t think it will come to that, because the ANC and DA do discuss issues behind closed doors.”

Independent political analyst Goodenough Mashego echoed that sentiment.

“If the DA brings the motion, it will succeed,” Mashego said. 

“But they won’t do it unless they are sure it will pass. They wouldn’t risk breaking the coalition and end up with nothing.”

He added that negotiating with the EFF and MK Party would be difficult, especially when it comes to agreeing on a successor.

“There is no scenario where the EFF or MK will let the DA appoint a president,” Mashego said. 

“And if the DA agrees to an MK president, there’s no way that president allows the DA into Cabinet.”

Masego said the motion is more likely a bargaining tactic.

“They might use it as leverage, but they’re not going to follow through,” he said. 

“Withdrawing from the National Dialogue doesn’t carry much real-world consequence - it’s more for optics.”

He also said that the DA may be realising the limits of its power in a coalition government.

“They can’t use ultimatums to force the ANC’s hand,” he said. 

“There’s a deconfliction mechanism in the agreement. The strongest statement they could make without destabilising the GNU was pulling out of the dialogue. They’re learning.”

simon.manadibodu@iol.co.za

IOL Politics