South Africa's National Security: Ntshavheni identifies coup d'état risks

Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshaveni has named coup d’état as one of the risks the national intelligence had identified and take action against.

Ntshavheni made the revelation when she was responding to the media when asked about the risks they had identified when she released the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and redacted National Security Strategy (NSS) for the sixth administration.

In her response, she initially said they had listed the risks to the national security in the documents, but indicated that the risk did not necessarily materialise.

“You need to identify and mitigate against it. One of the risks is the risk of coup d’état. We have identified it and put measures to mitigate against it.”

Ntshavheni also said they could assure South Africans that there was not anyone attempting to do a coup d’état in South Africa in the last few day or weeks.

“There has not been anyone attempting to do a coup in South Africa. We say that, not that there are no people planning. There are, but we continuously monitor them and make sure we deal with those.”

She stated that the intelligence agencies were not the ones making arrests and that those making the arrests don’t say it was intelligence driven.

“We rely on law enforcement agencies to make the arrests. We would have made the spade work,” Ntshavheni said.

The minister was making the comments at a media briefing after tabling the budget vote of the State Security Agency (SAA) in the national Assembly.

She had undertaken to make public the NIE and redacted National Security for the period between 2019 and 2024.

Ntshavheni described the release of the two documents as “a historic milestone in our democratic journey, one which speaks directly to the principles of national security, constitutional accountability, transparency, and national resilience”.

“The national security considerations dictate that we cannot release the current version of NIE and National Intelligence Priorities (NIS). Hence, we are publishing the NIE covering the period of the sixth Administration.”

She explained that release of the documents was to help South Africans understand the mandate of the state security.

She explained this work guides the work of SSA, adding that they wanted a conversation into the priorities on national security as it related to domestic and foreign matters set for the country.

Outlining the NIE, Ntshavheni said it provided a consolidated, evidence-based assessment of the strategic threats, risks, and opportunities facing the nation.

“It is the product of collaborative inputs from across the national intelligence community under the tutelage of the National Intelligence Coordinating Committee (NICOC) as per the provisions of the National Strategic Act 1994 (Act 39 of 1994), and other strategic partners. It seeks to ensure that our national response to complex security issues, from illegal migration, espionage, cyber threats and transnational organised crime to climate security as well as domestic instability among others, is informed, proactive, and coordinated.”

She also said the 2019–2024 National Intelligence Priorities were fully integrated with the priorities of the Medium-Term Strategic Framework with domestic intelligence priorities being to investigate threats to South Africa’s sovereign economic and business capacity and capabilities emanating from both domestic and foreign actors and events, among other things.

It also investigated activities related to terror financing that are characterised by vulnerabilities in the border security environment, exploitation of the cash economy, abuse of remittances, as well as the challenges presented by the new financial technologies and investigation and of syndicated criminal activities, including drug smuggling as well as human smuggling and trafficking.

Ntshavheni said the National Security Strategy, endorsed by the Cabinet on 13 March 2024, outlined a whole-of-government, and with its publication, the whole-of-society approach to national security, by embedding intelligence at the core of strategic foresight, resilience-building, and crisis prevention.  

“We should not be measured by the number of crises we managed but be measured by the number of crises not taken place. In the period between 2019 and 2024, outside July 2021 unrest, there have not been disruptive threats to the country,” she said, adding the exception was climate change.

“We have been working to give advice on the best mechanisms on areas affected by climate change to prevent future loss of lives.”

She insisted that the National Security Strategy was grounded in the principle that national security was inseparable from human security, economic stability, democratic governance, social justice and above all national interest.

Ntshaveni also said the release of the NIE, NIPs, and NSS was her commitment to building a modern, ethical, and professional intelligence capability, guided by law, oversight, and strategic foresight.

“This is part of our commitment to transform the sector to serve the Constitution, not partisan interests … Our national security response must be anticipatory, inclusive, and adaptive.”

mayibongwe.maqhina@inl.co.za