Summer forecast: South Africa braces for warmer temperatures and flooding risks
The South African Weather Service’s seasonal forecast reveals that the forthcoming summer season will mostly be hotter than normal with rainfall patterns that is likely to favor above-normal rainfall over the summer rainfall areas.
Image: Nathan Jeon/Unsplash
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has unveiled its seasonal forecast for the forthcoming summer, predicting a season marked by hotter-than-normal temperatures and potentially rampant rainfall across various regions.
This combination of weather patterns brings with it a dual threat: public health risks and the looming spectre of natural disasters, particularly flooding.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, yet recent rapid cooling could signal the onset of a weak La Niña event within the next month, if current indicators hold true.
For many areas in South Africa, particularly the summer rainfall regions in the north-eastern parts, this translates into generally favourable rainfall conditions, with the heightened risk of flooding bearing down on communities come summer.
Regions such as the North West, parts of the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, and parts of the Eastern Cape are projected to receive above-normal rainfall.
While this deluge could replenish water reservoirs desperately needed for agriculture and other uses, the stark reality remains: without adequate infrastructure and proactive measures to manage excessive water flow, the potential for catastrophic floods looms large.
The consequences of inadequate drainage systems could be dire; drownings, injuries, and cases of hypothermia may spike if communities do not prepare adequately for significant rain.
Conversely, the picture is less rosy for the Mpumalanga and Limpopo provinces, where below-average rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate existing drought conditions.
Faced with these challenges, farmers in these regions are urged to adopt robust soil and water conservation strategies, ensuring proper harvesting, storage techniques, and systematic drainage to mitigate adverse impacts.
In addition to rainfall fluctuations, the forecast highlights an increase in both minimum and maximum temperatures throughout much of the country.
Only the southwestern coastal areas, specifically cities in the Northern Cape and parts of the Western Cape, will benefit from below-normal temperatures. This heat rise intensifies the risk of heat-related illnesses, which can compromise human health and further stimulate the proliferation of foodborne pathogens, a concern not to be overlooked as the country moves into the warmer months.
IOL