Business Report Opinion

Oh for a petrodollar tidal wave!

Published

Just when it seemed that sky-high oil prices were starting to subside, they turned round and went right up again.

After a couple of months of being largely under $60 (R428) a barrel, benchmark oil prices rose above $60 on November 28, and they are now around $63.

Reuters describes $60 as the undeclared price target of oil cartel Opec. And it seems the organisation is prepared to do what it takes to see the price does not fall below that level.

Seeing oil stocks rise, and fearing oversupply next year, Opec members will meet on Thursday to decide on another production cut.

The market is expecting a reduction of between 1 million and 1.5 million barrels a day - after a cut of 1.2 million barrels following Opec's meeting in October.

This all seems very unreasonable. After all, look what rising oil prices have already cost us in terms of soaring energy costs, rising inflation and steady increases in interest rates, which are spoiling the party for South Africa's consumers.

Early in 1999, oil producers were earning only about $10 a barrel. And little more than two years ago, Opec was promising to keep oil prices between $22 and $28 a barrel.

But prices have been above $35 since early 2004, almost hitting $79 in August. And oil producers are already rolling in petrodollars, while oil importers are reflecting sadly on their current account deficits.

Does that seem fair? Not to us it doesn't.

But I suppose oil exporters see life through a different lens. Another way of looking at the price is in real terms.

Measured in constant 1979 prices, the economics of the oil industry looks a little different.

By that measure, oil is worth only about $21 a barrel at present, compared with a level of just under $40 a barrel in 1979 after the revolution in Iran.

So perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that Opec wants to hold on to its $60 floor, nor should we be surprised to see the floor move up at regular intervals. And if the pessimists are right and global oil production is nearing its peak, prices will get lots of support.

But, if we're lucky, some of the proceeds will return to our shores.

The London Sunday Times has reported that a tidal wave of petrodollars is hitting Britain. It's flowing into British companies and assets. And, unlike private equity groups that expect returns of 20 percent, the Middle Eastern investors are content with returns in the high single digits, says the Sunday Times.

If the petrodollars keep flowing, Middle Eastern and other wealthy investors will eventually run out of opportunities in their traditional hunting grounds. And they will have to look further afield to countries like South Africa.

For some time there have been expectations that international private equity players, like Permira, will be tempted to take a bite out of some of our companies.

If we are lucky, we will soon sight a second wave of wealthy investors, and not just from the Middle East but also from closer to home, like Nigeria.

Of course, they have already briefly tried their luck, and found it bad.

Perhaps they will be luckier in the oil sector than they were with the ill-fated launch in South Africa of ThisDay newspaper.