Why migration must be a priority for decision makers and planners

Millions of people are leaving their home countries to permanently live in another country every year. During 2024 the number of international migrants stood at 304 million. 

According to the UN definition, a person is considered a migrant if they moved across an international border, changed their country of residence and is living in the receiving country for more than 12 months, regardless of the reason for their migration or the legal immigration status of the person. 

Four regions of the world are experiencing significant shifts in the portion of migrants as a share of their total population. In Oceania, 21.5% of the population are migrants, in Northern America it is 15.9%, in Europe 12.6%, and in Western Asia and Northern Africa 9.3%.  The top destination countries for migrants between 1990 and 2024 were the United States of America, Germany, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates.

In some regions of the world, migration is a controversial topic. There are numerous accounts of hostilities against migrants and actions to curb their movement. But, one should not lose sight of the potential benefits that migrants bring. For a host country, migrants could contribute knowledge and skills that are otherwise lacking, and in ageing populations, younger migrants could bring social and economic vitality. Remittances to migrants’ countries of origin are making significant contributions to the financial wellness of their families that remained there, and in some cases those remittances make up a considerable portion of the sending country’s GDP.  

In Africa, roughly 80 % of migrants remain within the continent, moving from one African country to another. These movements fuel urban growth and sustain remittance economies, but also concentrate pressure on services, housing and labour markets in fast-growing cities.

For South Africa, the number of international migrants doubled between 1990 (1.29 million) and 2024 (2.63 million). The number of international migrants moving to South Africa reduced during and after the COVID-19 travel restrictions, but it is picking up again.

However, large numbers of South Africans also migrate between provinces. For example, during the period between 2021 and 2026, StatsSA projects that 1.38 million people will move into Gauteng and 0.6 million will leave the province for other provinces within South Africa, while more than half a million people will migrate out of the Eastern Cape, with almost 200 000 migrating into the province. 

Looking towards the future, one of the next main drivers of migration on the African continent may stem from the effects of climate change. It may accelerate rural-to-urban migration, turning cities into default safety nets for displaced people. Indications of such shifts are already observable. The northern and western parts of the continent are projected to experience significant desertification. Extreme weather events, like the recent cyclones in Mozambique and flooding in Nigeria’s river basins could displace people, many of whom may end up in already overburdened urban settlements. These should not be seen as isolated shocks; they are symptoms of a deeper trend. According to World Bank projections, Africa could see more than 85 million internal climate migrants toward 2050.

Decision makers and planners should take cognisance of how and why people could be moving in future. Our towns and cities are already not keeping up with the influx of people wanting to live there. Moreover, some migrants arrive in a precarious condition that adds to the pressure on already overburdened social support systems and urban infrastructure. Serious foresight-informed action is required, sooner rather than later.

Dr Doris Viljoen is the Director of the Institute for Futures Research at Stellenbosch Business School.

*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL

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