Trump's firing of statistics executive Erika McEntrfer is very disturbing

The late Dr Wole Adegboyega, a United Nations expert who served as my advisor on the first post-apartheid census of South Africa, told me of a story about questioning the integrity of census numbers.  He was a consultant in Sierra Leone during a count and the number they presented was rejected off hand by the president who said, “My son you no sabi how to count. Plenty people dey de for forest and make you commot count em. I beg oo my son.”  This means that there are more people in the forest that have been missed and not counted. 

That Trump fired Erika McEntrfer the executive of the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics (US BLS) is not new in the practice of official statistics, but it is very disturbing.  Many in the world of labour statistics, which measures the labour market dynamics that includes unemployment have trained at this prestigious US BLS.  The Chief Statistician of the United States sits in the Office of Management and Budget. The responsibility of such a person is that of an associate director for data and governance-wide policy - a data steward so to say. This office is tied and enjoined to the global statistical system and practices of the United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics and the United Nations Statistical Commission, which the late Chief Statistician of the United States Katherine Wallman chaired. The burden of chairing the commission is no light task – I felt the weight of responsibility when I did. 

On Friday, 1st of August, the D-day for tariffs, US President Donald Trump axed McEntrfer.  The firing comes after the employment figures showed a sluggish job creation – only 73 000 jobs were created in July.  “I believe the numbers were phony ... so I fired her”, so dismissively argued President Trump for dismissal of a professional that holds the key to statistics – state facts.  More than anything else President Trump was driven by belief rather than evidence and on the basis of his personal belief, he transformed this into a presidential decision to fire McEnter.

Stalin very much like Trump did worst. He did not only order the arrest of his chief statistician but he actually ordered his execution. In 1937 Olimpiy Kvitkin was first arrested and shot dead in 1937.  The reason was that his account of the population of the Soviet Union revealed a population lower than what Stalin had announced as the total number of people in Russia.  In 2012 Minister of Finance Moreno decided to fire Argentina’s honcho of consumer price index (CPI) Graciela Bavacqua for refusing to publish falsified inflation indices.  In 2013 March I was one of the guest speakers at the UN Statistical Commission on the abuses of statistics.  I raised several abuses in different regions of the world including by South Africa under my watch. The mention of Argentina was a sore part on the part of the Argentine delegation who stormed out of the 400 delegates meeting uttering profane as they huffed and puffed out of the meeting. In 2014 I invited Bavacqua to StatsSA to share the roque politics of interference in official statistics in Argentina.  In 2017 I was pleasantly surprised when I received a note verbal via the South African Mission in Argentine that appreciated my efforts to get Argentina Statistics on a credible path.

Greece tortured and tormented Andreas Georgiou, the head of ELSTAT for revising the national accounts statistics of Greece.  He faced death sentence if he was found guilty by the Greek Justice system.  From 2012 to date Georgiou faces accusation of simple slander.  The accusation means that the content of the accusation is true but may cause embarrassment to the accused. In 2019 President Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey fired Sait Erdal Dincer who was his Chief Statistician. The reason was that the inflation numbers were galloping at 36% and Erdogan did not believe the numbers. President Trump’s namesake, Prime Minister Donald Tusk fired his Chief Statistician Dominik Rozkrut.       

In 2021 Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapić of Montenegro removed Dr. Gordana Radojević from the position of Director of the Statistical Office (MONSTAT) in a controversial dispute on when and if the census of Montenegro could be held.

Canada after a colourful career of Ivan Fellegi Chief Statistician Emeritus who was Canada’s Chief Statistician for 25 year and an employee of StatCan for at least 50 years, tells a story of distabilisation after his departure.  Politics played the mice whilst the big cat disappeared.  Two chief statisticians of Canada decided to fall on their swords within six years of departure one from the other than to give politicians the pleasure of pompously firing them. Munir Sheik just under three years resigned in 2010 and was followed by Wayne Smith who resigned in 2016.

The position of Statistician General is in the firing line.  Politicians are often pompously unaware of the damaging effects of their deep ignorance. With the latest victim being the chief statistician of the US bureau of Labour Statistics, the line of fire and bone of contention is measurement of political performance.  Statistics are facts about the state just like economics is about facts about the economy.

Napoleon the Bonaparte is said to like statistics so much that if you promised him measurement upon which he would make a decision, Napoleon would grant you the freedom of the city. While not a statistician in the modern sense, he utilized numerical data for military strategy, administration, and even propaganda. His impact on statistics was indirect, but significant, particularly in shaping the development of statistical institutions and practices in France.

In fact, I can attest to the fact that the French statistical training institutions display very deep knowledge in methods – ENSEA in Cote d Ivoire where I sent some of the staff members for training from StatsSA has shown this deep appreciation and practice in methods.  

For those with two brain cells to rub together, it has always been clear that the consequences of Trump’s DOGE combined with tariffs was a toxic concoction for job losses, at least in the short run, but also a lasting medicine to be taken advantage of for countries that have depended on deceptive US markets.  Accepting tariffs or being retaliatory about them given the weak US strategy could be the way to go because it is the most liberating path for Africa’s own economic freedom as it marks the essential window to end the era of begging bowl politics. 

Bonaparte understood the strategic in statistics as a tool of systems thinking and design thinking and therefore one of foresight.  It is not about people that have not been counted in the forest. 

Dr Pali Lehohla is a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, a Research Associate at Oxford University, a board member of Institute for Economic Justice at Wits and a distinguished Alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former Statistician-General of South Africa.

 *** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL.

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