South Africa’s beef industry faces a fragile festive season

The ongoing spread of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in South Africa has placed the country’s beef industry at a crossroads. Despite significant progress in controlling the disease in 2024, new outbreaks in 2025 across provinces like KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, North West, and Free State are threatening the industry’s stability, export potential, and long-term growth prospects.

The timing could hardly be worse. Just as the South African red meat industry was gearing up for its festive-season peak—a crucial period when national demand for steaks, roasts and braai favourites surges—new cases of FMD have been confirmed at a feedlot in Gauteng and Free State, with a possible case under investigation in the Free State. The progression of FMD outbreaks in South Africa from earlier in March to date shows a worsening picture, with outbreaks spreading beyond two provinces (KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape) in March to five provinces by August, including Gauteng, North West, Mpumalanga, and Free State. The Department of Agriculture is currently addressing FMD by procuring imported vaccines from Botswana, with plans to establish local vaccine production

A Shock to Confidence and Stability

The re-emergence of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) threatens to shake confidence in an already fragile livestock market. As a notifiable disease, detected cases must be reported internationally, which puts the country at risk of temporary trade suspensions by key export partners. For example, China imposed a blanket ban on South African beef imports in May 2025 following FMD outbreaks in Gauteng and Mpumalanga. This decision serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of South Africa’s beef export framework and the significant economic risks posed by such outbreaks.

For domestic consumers, this means uncertainty heading into the festive season. Feedlots are critical suppliers to abattoirs, retailers, and export clients. Any interruption in animal movement can create sudden supply imbalances and put upward pressure on beef prices just as South Africans prepare for Christmas braais and year-end celebrations.

Implications for National Beef Supply & Pricing

Following the confirmation of FMD cases at the major feedlots, South Africa’s beef supply chain is entering a short but significant disruption phase. After the mandatory post‑vaccination waiting period — generally around 21 days to confirm immunity and rule out viral activity — controlled slaughter will resume under veterinary supervision at non‑export facilities. This will gradually ease domestic shortages through November and December 2025, although supply will still trail normal seasonal patterns due to processing bottlenecks and the destruction requirements for certain by‑products such as heads, feet, and offal. Feedlots will also carry animals longer than planned, increasing feed costs and limiting new cattle placements. If we look at other meat types, this may lead to increased demand and subsequent price hikes for alternative proteins like poultry and pork.

For the sustainability of the sector, it’s critical that farmers undertake biosecurity measures by ensuring adherence to the following, among others:

• Control farm access: Restrict the entry of visitors, vehicles, and equipment to your farm to limit potential contamination.
• Set up a disinfection station: Use lime powder or disinfectant footbaths at entry points for people, vehicles, and animals.
• Quarantine new animals: Keep new livestock isolated for at least 2–3 weeks before introducing them to the herd.
•   Clean and disinfect regularly: Sanitise animal housing, equipment, and feeding areas frequently.
• Implement a vaccination program: Work with veterinarians to vaccinate animals against FMD, especially in high-risk areas. Ensure booster shots are given as recommended.
• Follow guidelines provided by the Department of Agriculture & Industry: Use vaccines approved for the specific FMD strain affecting your area.

By early 2026, assuming no further outbreaks occur, domestic beef availability should stabilise as quarantines are lifted and the backlog of finished cattle moves through abattoirs. Overall, the outbreak will cause a period of short‑term domestic scarcity and elevated prices, followed by gradual re‑balancing.

Karabo Mabuza is an Agricultural Economist in the Agriculture Economics and Advisory division of the Land Bank.

*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL.

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