Why modelling is crucial for a just climate transition in South Africa

The business case for modelling in climate policy is simple. We can’t resolve problems we don’t fully comprehend.  Modelling helps turn uncertainty into informed choices — grounding climate ambition in sound, evidence-based decision-making. The energy, economic and social shifts required for a fair, low-carbon transition depend on clear evidence of what each pathway means for people, regions and industries.

Focussed on achieving a just transition to a sustainable and low-carbon future, the Presidential Climate Commission’s work necessarily extends well beyond the climate system itself. The Commission’s collaborative analytical foundation lies in linking climate science with various spatial, technical, and socio-economic models that together capture the interactions between emissions, energy systems, economic structures, and social outcomes. This integration allows the PCC to situate climate ambition within the realities of employment, inequality, and development — ensuring that climate science informs decisions through an understanding of how mitigation pathways intersect with broader national priorities. This analytical approach depends on tools that translate complex systems into usable insights.

However, models are not crystal balls, they are structured ways of thinking about possible futures. They help decision-makers test assumptions, weigh trade-offs and anticipate risks. In a country where every policy choice must balance development, equity and decarbonisation, this evidence base approach is essential for building trust and coherence across government and society.

The Power and Limits of Models

The electricity sector is pivotal to all net-zero pathways for South Africa. Modelled scenarios reaching net-zero by 2050 or 2055 indicate that the power sector will typically achieve net-zero CO₂ emissions first, requiring roughly a doubling of cumulative investment compared with unconstrained pathways. Emission reductions in transport and industry depend on this early power-sector shift, underscoring electricity as the foundation for all subsequent sectoral mitigation efforts.

Not all reductions in the extraction of fossil resources will arise from local decarbonisation. Compared to a world progressing slowly towards decarbonisation, employment in extractive sectors, such as coal, could decline a further 17–21% in a world strongly committed to climate action. South Africa, therefore, needs to prepare for both local and global possibilities.

Some employment losses can be offset through job creation in renewable energy, green manufacturing, and energy efficiency, where net employment can match or potentially exceed losses, but this requires strong planning, policy and skills investment. Expanding technical and vocational training in these sectors, particularly in regions dependent on fossil-based industries, will be critical to ensuring that the workforce adapts to new opportunities and that the transition remains both just and inclusive.

From Insight to Impact: Turning Model Outputs into Policy Action

 Models give structure to how we imagine possible futures. Translating social and economic realities into evidence for decision-making, while reminding us that every projection carries assumptions and trade-offs. They quantify how energy investments affect employment, emissions and public finances, or how shifts in technology and behaviour alter long-term opportunities. Models inevitably simplify a complex reality — they cannot fully reflect the social dynamics, political choices and human experiences that shape real outcomes.

To this end, we must translate quantitative outputs into insights that are meaningful within South Africa’s Just Transition. This means connecting emissions pathways, sectoral shifts and investment needs to social outcomes such as employment, livelihoods and regional equity. In doing so, modelling becomes not only a technical exercise but a bridge between evidence and justice — ensuring that the transition ahead is both analytically sound and socially fair.

Building a Shared Language: The Community of Practice

Recognising that no single institution holds all the answers, the PCC’s modelling community of practice fosters collaboration, shared learning and transparency across South Africa’s modelling ecosystem. It brings together government departments, universities, research centres and independent experts to align methods, share data and co-develop scenarios. This network helps bridge divides between academic research and policy application, ensuring that models are responsive to real policy needs while maintaining analytical integrity.

In recent years, the PCC has helped to build partnerships, aligning scenarios and strengthening capacity across institutions. Regular engagements and technical exchanges have led to a more coherent understanding of South Africa’s decarbonisation pathways and socio-economic implications. Joint scenario-building exercises have enabled researchers and policymakers to explore consistent storylines for the energy transition, land use and industrial policy. Importantly, these efforts have begun to open the modelling process to broader participation — inviting dialogue with stakeholders beyond the traditional technical community.

Modelling for People and Planet

The next phase is about deepening participation, capacity building, integrating justice and equity more explicitly into models, and ensuring that analytical tools serve both people and the planet. This means investing in local modelling capacity, improving access to data and incorporating indicators that reflect distributional impacts, gender dynamics and community resilience. Ultimately, modelling for a just transition is not only about refining numbers, but about democratising evidence. By embedding collaboration, transparency and inclusivity into our modelling systems, South Africa can ensure that the transition ahead is not only technically sound but also socially just.

Jurgen Olivier is the Lead Modeller at Presidential Climate Commission. 

*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL.

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