South African investors face a challenging market landscape in 2026, marked by global uncertainty and local developments. This article explores the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment strategy amidst volatility and highlights key insights from Sanlam on navigating these turbulent times.
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South African investors are facing a turbulent start to 2026, as global uncertainty and local developments combine to test market confidence and personal financial resilience, this is according to Sanlam.
A mix of geopolitical tensions, shifting economic policy, and volatile markets has created a challenging environment. Globally, the re-emergence of protectionist trade policies and tariff disputes has unsettled markets, while ongoing conflict in the Middle East has reinforced expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer, the group says.
At the same time, rising energy prices have reignited fears of stagflation, a difficult scenario of slow economic growth paired with persistent inflation. This has led to upward revisions in inflation forecasts and downward adjustments to global growth expectations, it says.
According to Sanlam, the impact has been widespread. Gold, typically a safe-haven asset, recently recorded its worst week in more than 40 years, dropping over 10%, while both equity and bond markets have experienced broad corrections. Reflecting the uncertainty, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remarked: “Nobody knows.”
The ups and downs of investment markets.
Image: Sanlam
Despite the global headwinds, there have been encouraging developments closer to home.
According to Sanlam, South Africa has seen improvements in investor sentiment following key policy and economic shifts. The Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) contributed to an upgrade by S&P Global Ratings, while the country’s removal from the grey list has further strengthened confidence.
In addition, the adoption of a new inflation target of 3%, with a one percentage point range on either side, signals a stronger commitment to price stability.
Market performance in 2025 also provided a welcome boost. It marked the first year since the Covid-19 pandemic that all major asset classes delivered positive returns. Local equities surged by 42.4%, bonds gained 24.2%, and the rand strengthened against the US dollar, it says.
Sanlam says for ordinary investors, however, the key question is not what markets are doing, but how to respond.
Sanlam cautions strongly against making emotional or short-term decisions during periods of volatility.
“Don’t be tempted to make hasty changes to your investment portfolios. The risk is that you will miss out on any market recovery, which will have a devastating effect on your savings,” the group warns.
This is particularly relevant for retirement savers, many of whom may feel uneasy seeing fluctuations in their fund values, it says.
The reality, Sanlam emphasises, is that retirement investing is a long-term journey — often spanning around 40 years, and is designed to withstand cycles of market volatility.
Its advice to investors is clear and practical:
Central to this approach is the company’s lifestage investment strategy, which automatically adjusts risk over time. Younger investors are placed in growth-focused portfolios where short-term losses are less critical, while those nearing retirement are gradually shifted into more conservative investments to protect their accumulated savings, the group says.
“Different portfolios are designed to deliver different outcomes at different times in your retirement journey to try and minimise any downturns in the long run,” Sanlam says.
While the current environment may feel uncertain, the broader lesson for investors is not new: markets are unpredictable in the short term, but resilient over the long term, the group says.
For South Africans saving for retirement or long-term goals, the biggest risk may not be market volatility, but abandoning a well-structured plan at the wrong time, it says.
Sanlam says in a climate of heightened uncertainty, its message is straightforward: stay invested, stay disciplined, and focus on the bigger picture.
PERSONAL FINANCE