Cape Town has continued to show a steady growth of 5.1% in prime residential prices, according to the Knight Frank’s Prime International Residential Index (PIRI).

This feat by the Mother City is no surprise, says Nick Gaertner, Director and COO of Knight Frank South Africa.

“Lifestyle offerings and affordability has proved a constant attraction to foreigners looking for second homes and is high on the list for many holiday makers across Europe.

"We have also seen a surge in demand from the local South African market since the elections in June last year, with many families looking to move to the Mother City from other provinces within the country. In the coming 12 months it is expected that prices will continue to rise as demand is significantly outstripping supply," Gaertner said.

Regional trends

In January, Richard Gray, CEO of Harcourts South Africa told this publication that they are seeing that the Western Cape has been driving the rise in residential values over the past three years. The company said it was optimistic that this performance will broaden to particularly KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape in 2025 as these provinces have experienced little to any capital growth in 2024.

According to The Wealth Report 2025, Knight Frank’s flagship research report, with the global interest rates edging lower over the past twelve months, prime residential prices continued on an upwards trajectory in 2024 with an increase of 3.6%, marginally up on the 3.3% uptick seen in 2023.

Of the 100 markets tracked in Knight Frank’s Prime International Residential Index (PIRI), 77 recorded positive annual price growth.

Global market insights

Asian and Middle Eastern markets dominated the first six spots in the ranking with Seoul (18.4%), Manilla (17.9%) and Dubai (16.9%) leading the list. Saudi Arabian markets performed strongly this year, with Riyadh (16%) and Jeddah (9.6%) both making the top six.

The improvement in the annual growth rate was said to be driven by strong regional performance in the Middle East (7.2%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (6.3%).

Europe lagged at 2.5%, with high interest rates, slowing economies and weakened consumer confidence weighing on activity in some key markets.

There were, however, bright spots, especially in key second- home markets. North American growth (2.4%) was held back by weaker growth in Canadian prime markets and some US markets, such as Miami, which slowed after recent strong growth. With average growth of 3.7%, sunbelt markets led city markets (3.5%) and ski destinations (2.6%). The year's strong showing from resort markets continues the trend seen since the pandemic with nearly 30% growth in values in these markets, against 25% for ski markets, and cities lagging posting only 19% growth.

Interest rates

Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank said even for prime markets, interest rates remain the key story.

“Rates are still very high in most developed markets compared with where they were as recently as 2022, but the past 12 months have seen central banks move decisively into a new era, with cuts outpacing rate rises for the first time in three years.

"While the direction of travel is positive for house prices and has supported the growth we have seen in over three- quarters of markets, the reduction in debt costs is still not sufficient to turn this into a trend in most markets. It will take additional rate cuts during 2025 to restore momentum,” Bailey said.

On the supply side, a lack of newbuild inventory is said to be still impacting many markets.

Disruption to supply chains, high build cost inflation and wage hikes have all conspired to reduce delivery of new luxury projects. To take central London as one example, new-build activity is currently running 25% below the 10-year average.

Aside from new-build volumes, a low inventory of existing homes to buy is also supporting prices. The collapse in property listings, a feature of prime US markets in 2023 and early 2024, has eased recently-but markets such as New York are still seeing listings 10% to 20% below the five-year average. On the demand side, while buyers are price conscious, especially with relatively high debt costs, there remains strong appetite for residential property among wealthy buyers.

Bailey said over the past five years a number of markets have seen significant upwards repricing, with Dubai leading with a 147% rise. “This year’s second strongest market, Manila, has seen consistently strong growth over the same period with an 87% rise powered by an expanding economy and interest from expat Filipinos reinvesting in the city. It is the US, however, which had the biggest cluster of growth markets over this period. Palm Beach (117%), Miami (84%) and Aspen (73%) are the standout performers, where the strength of the US economy and investment markets has fed through to substantial price rises.”

On an annual basis, Knight Frank provides a guide to how many square metres of typical luxury accommodation US$1 million world’s top markets.

Bailey said this year they provided a view of the dramatic shifts in buying power over the past decade, showing how far one’s budget would have stretched in 2014 as well as today. “The main takeaway is the impact of surging growth in markets like Miami, Dubai and Lisbon and the impact of price corrections and currency moves on London, Monaco and New York.”

Global luxury residential markets continued to grow through 2024-driven by strong performance in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, a new report, Africa’s Urbanisation Dynamics 2025: Planning for Urban Expansion, from the Sahel and West Africa Club (OECD/SWAC), the African Development Bank, Cities Alliance and United Cities and Local Governments of Africa, analyses the rapid urbanisation under way across Africa and looks at the policy measures that will be required to manage this transition in a fair and sustainable way.

The number of people living in cities in Africa is expected to double from 700 million to 1.4 billion by 2050, according to the report, with cities absorbing 80% of the total projected population growth in Africa over that period. This pace of urbanisation is said to present a pressing challenge-with a need for national and local governments to rapidly increase housing supply, infrastructure and essential services-but also a transformative opportunity to make future cities and expanded urban areas more resilient to challenges such as inequality and climate change.

The report calls for policies that improve land governance, including better regulatory frameworks for land tenure, and increased investment to finance urban development with clear economic, social and environmental objectives. It is says it is also essential to involve the private sector, civil society and informal settlements to prevent a mismatch between investment and urban needs and to share out the benefits of growth.

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