Bafana Bafana, coached by Hugo Broos, must win against Rwanda and hope other results go their way to stay in the 2026 World Cup race.
Image: Backpagepix
Bafana Bafana’s fate is no longer in their own hands as they head into Tuesday’s final Fifa World Cup 2026 Group C qualifier against Rwanda in Mbombela, but at least they now know they need to win the game as a bare minimum.
Friday’s 0-0 draw with Zimbabwe in Durban was bitterly disappointing, and it means Benin are in the driving seat heading into Tuesday’s final round of group games.
However, Benin must go to Nigeria, whose nervy 2-1 victory over minnows Lesotho on Friday in Polokwane brings them very much back into contention. That was a good result for Bafana Bafana, as it should keep the Super Eagles laser-focused ahead of what is a must-win game for them against Benin.
Had they fallen out of contention, they may have gone through the motions in Uyo on Tuesday.
Only the CAF group winners will automatically qualify for the 2026 World Cup. The criteria for classifying teams are as follows: the most points, better goal difference, the most goals scored, and the head-to-head record. The latter two could be very important.
Here are the permutations going into Tuesday’s final round, assuming Bafana get the win they need against Rwanda to stand a chance of overhauling Benin. Any other result and they will fall short.
Benin will qualify for their first-ever World Cup.
In this scenario, Bafana and Benin will be level on 18 points. Benin would maintain their +5 goal difference. Bafana Bafana are currently on +3, meaning they would need to beat Rwanda by two clear goals to draw level with Benin. It would then come down to goals scored, with both sides currently on 12.
Bafana Bafana would go to at least 14 (needing to beat Rwanda by two goals), meaning if Benin drew 0-0, 1-1 or 2-2, Bafana would be through. That is because if Bafana are level on points, goal difference, and goals scored with Benin, it comes down to head-to-head, and South Africa collected 2-1 and 2-0 wins over Benin.
A most unlikely 3-3 draw in Uyo would put Benin through on goals scored.
Bafana will qualify if they beat Rwanda. If they don’t, then Nigeria will qualify with a 1-0 win over Benin. They will be level on points (17), goal-difference (+4), goals scored (12) and head-to-head (2-2).
However, Nigeria would advance on the away goals rule after they lost 2-1 in the first game between the sides. If Nigeria win 2-1, then it would come down to Fair Play points and potentially the drawing of lots!
Meanwhile, CAF revised the qualifying rules following Eritrea’s withdrawal from the competition. CAF have explained that whenever a group has fewer than five teams due to withdrawal or disqualification, results against the lowest-ranked or withdrawn teams will not count when comparing second-placed sides.
The outcomes of Tuesday’s games could determine whether any of Group C make it to the top four berths on the log of second-placed sides, which will proceed to another qualifying round.
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