Fixing US relationship a tough mission for Ramaphosa

Prof. Dirk Kotze

The presidential appointment of Mcebisi Jonas as South Africa’s envoy “to advance South Africa’s diplomatic, trade and bilateral priorities” with the USA continues to dominate the news. Negative remarks by Jonas four years ago about President Trump, however, have made his appointment very unlikely to continue. Speculations about an alternative for him are already rife, and former President Thabo Mbeki is regarded as one of the options.

In the official statement about Jonas’s appointment, the envoy’s task is set out to “lead negotiations, foster strategic partnerships and engage with U.S. government officials and private-sector leaders to promote our nation’s interest”. In the most immediate past a range of bilateral matters have contaminated these relations, notably South African ambassador, Ebrahim Rasool’s forced departure from Washington, DC, because of his remarks about the American president. A few days later South Africa shared in Trump’s brunt with many other countries, with a 30% increase in American trade tariffs and possible sanctions against some South Africans. The absence of a South African ambassador in the US exacerbated the situation and has made a presidential envoy even more urgent. But this was not a new decision, because President Ramaphosa announced the need for envoys to Europe and the US already in his State of the Nation address in February. 

While the Trump administration has already identified Leo Brent Bozell III as the new ambassador in South Africa, a public debate about who Rasool’s successor should be, is still ongoing. Complicated by Jonas’s de facto disqualification as an envoy, the two vacancies might entail a complex process of identifying new incumbents. Looking at Jonas’s task description, it was almost identical to an ambassador’s mandate. It can be expected that once the envoy has been appointed, it will not be for a short tenure but could continue for several years. When a new South African ambassador has been accepted by Washington, DC, it will be absolutely important to develop a clear understanding of the two posts’ respective mandates. 

What is the track record of presidential envoys in South Africa? During the Mbeki administration, they were used almost exclusively to represent South Africa in peace-making mediation processes. Persons like Aziz Pahad, Deputy President Zuma, Charles Nqakula, Welile Nhlapo, Sydney Mufamadi and Kingsley Mamabolo played that role. During the Zuma administration, the same pattern continued, involving again several of them. 

President Ramaphosa took it beyond security issues. From 2018 onwards he appointed the first four and later another two presidential envoys to promote foreign direct investments in South Africa. They included former Ministers Trevor Manuel, Jeff Radebe, Derek Hanekom, Mcebisi Jonas and also Jacko Maree (Liberty Group chairperson) and Phumzile Langeni (Afropulse Group chairperson). A combination of former government members and private sector leaders became associated with the Ramaphosa approach. He repeated it later with the South African envoys sent to the US to lobby decision-makers in Washington, DC on South Africa’s continued inclusion in the AGOA trade dispensation. 

Another Ramaphosa initiative was in 2019 when he sent Jeff Radebe as envoy to Nigerian President Buhari to apologise for the xenophobic violence in South Africa and to reaffirm South Africa’s promotion of pan-African unity. Other South African former diplomats were also dispatched to Niger, Ghana, Senegal, Tanzania, DRC and Zambia. Reminiscent of the current situation with the USA, the main purpose of these missions was to restore the bilateral relations with these states and promote South Africa’s image in Africa.

In yet another variation of an envoy, last year the presidential national security advisor, Sydney Mufamadi, was dispatched to Mozambique in response to the security instability after their national election. His task was not only to play the traditional role of an envoy to stabilize the situation but also to act in the interest of South Africa’s national security. The latest appointment of a presidential envoy to the US should therefore be understood in the context of these cases.

What is the likelihood that former President Mbeki can be appointed as the envoy? As an individual with so much diplomatic and political experience at the highest level, he is the most experienced person for this position. But what will be all the other considerations?

It can be treated almost as a protocol that former presidents all over the world seldom used by incumbent presidents in a role like this. Former presidents or prime ministers are indeed used by international or regional organisations, such as the UN Secretary-General, the African Union or the Southern African Development Community, as envoys. For example, in November 2020 former Presidents Obasanjo, Chissano, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf and Kgalema Motlanthe were appointed by the AU as its envoys in the Ethiopia/Tigray talks. Recently, a team of envoys was appointed by the Southern African and East African regional organisations to mediate a peace agreement in the DRC, consisting of former Nigerian President Obasanjo, former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, the former president of the Central African Republic, and former President Motlanthe. 

Why is it difficult for an incumbent and former president to work together? Irrespective of their relationship, it becomes a question of how to relate in terms of seniority and authority. The incumbent president has to be in the dominant position. The impression cannot be allowed that the incumbent is dependent on the former president or that the former president continues to dictate the political or diplomatic environment at the cost of the incumbent.

The option President Ramaphosa has under the current circumstances is the example of the six investment envoys he appointed in 2018/19. The focus is then not on the personality and views of only one envoy. Given the diverse focus areas of the current envoy mandate, team members with different experiences and expertise can work together. It will also diminish a possible turf war between a new South African ambassador in the US and a presidential envoy.