Trump has all the cards to play with Putin; Europe has none

EUROPE’s perpetual reliance on the US in global affairs was bound to implode at a certain point. The increasing isolation of Europe from the US-led efforts to broker a peace deal with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict shines a light on an age-old truism, which goes as follows: “In politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.”

Until recently, Europe fell for Washington’s foreign policy during the tenure of former Democratic President Joe Biden hook, line, and sinker. Now, under the Republican incumbent President Donald Trump, the previous collective pro-war Europe hell-bent on Russophobia looks at sixes and sevens.

During the Biden administration, Europe acted self-assuredly, taking turns lambasting President Putin and working hard to isolate Russia in international affairs. Led by Biden’s White House, Europe signed up to an unprecedented barrage of economic sanctions against Russia and froze Moscow’s riches invested in European banks.

On Biden’s say-so, Europe rallied behind Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian, turned statesman. The US rallied the West to offer astronomical sums of money and supplied a plethora of sophisticated heavy metal weapons to Ukraine, including air defence and modern missiles.

Additionally, Europe, through its military wing NATO, provided military experts and advisors to Kiev, including field commanders who initially took up their positions surreptitiously. Europe’s provision of diplomatic support for Ukraine saw Zelensky treated like royalty across the West as part of international mobilisation against Moscow.

The Global South refused to be dragged into the anti-Russian wave. Now, with the new sheriff in the White House, the pro-war agenda has been abruptly replaced by a pro-peace drive. “This is a war that would never have started if I were president,” Trump has said repeatedly.

As part of a battle for public opinion, Europe banned Russia’s international TV outlet, Russia Today, better known as RT. In this way, the international community could be fed with a one-dimensional subjective narrative that sought to vilify Putin without addressing Moscow’s concerns about Nato’s expansion eastward.

The Kremlin has claimed that repeated attempts to bring Europe to the negotiation table about the issue were either laughed off or fell on deaf ears. Moscow has argued that when the Soviet Union fell at the turn of the 1990s, the West undertook to never expand Nato to Russia’s doorstep, a promise the West reneged on.

According to the Russians, believe them or not, it was when all attempts to discuss geopolitical differences failed that Moscow adopted the view that the best form of defence was attack. Today, three years later and more than 1 million Ukrainian soldiers and Western mercenaries dead, Trump is sticking by his election promise to end the war.

This week, the charge against Europe came from one of its own. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban charged that Europe’s approach to Putin and Russia was a hindrance to peace. Writing in his social media handle on X, Orban said: “That is how we have manoeuvred ourselves into a situation in Europe where we are not in a negotiating position with the Russians, but the Russians and the Americans are negotiating with each other.”

Additionally, Zelensky, too, like his European war-mongers, is not included in the US-Russia discussions about Ukraine. As Orban observed, the train has indeed taken off and left Europeans behind. As the White House was hard at work preparing for the Trump-Putin Summit in Alaska this week, leaders of Europe were scrambling to have their anti-Putin views considered by Trump.

It was a last-ditch scramble for attention by Europe, a pole of power of great significance, which, unfortunately, has long outsourced its responsibilities and duties to Washington, and openly thanking Washington for the opportunity of doing so, to paraphrase Harper Lee.

Since the end of WWII in 1945, the alliance between Europe and the US has been explicitly one-sided, with one US administration after the other happily taking Europe under its arm. Economically, Europe has seemed content to lean on Washington like a weaker sibling seeking protection from its big brother. Europe has been happy to ride on America’s apparent military invincibility as the world’s only surviving superpower for aeons. In many ways, President Trump and his Vice President, JD Vance’s expressed exasperation with Europe’s relentless dependency on the US feels like finally, the chickens have come home to roost.

The certain ideological changes in the White House every four years have caught up with Europe. Instead of reading the changing mood in the room that is the White House, Europe attempts to stand up and be counted. Methinks too late. The horse has long bolted — from November 6, 2024, when President Trump won the US election.

Reminiscent of the last kicks of a dying horse, key European leaders cobbled together the so-called Coalition of the Willing on realising that Trump had made it clear the Ukraine war had to stop. Sanctions against Russia had not worked, and Russian forces are gaining more Ukrainian territory by the day, anyway. Additionally, every day scores of men and women lose their lives in the conflict that the majority of the international community agrees with President Trump when he says it should never have erupted.

Europe alone cannot fight Russia militarily, and Trump is the least interested in providing the bloc the so-called backstop that they have been pleading for. As long as Trump remains determined to give peace a chance — at least in Ukraine — Europe will have to abandon its war mentality. The desires of the current White House bear far-reaching consequences for Europe and Nato, which cannot trigger its Article 5 on the principle that an attack on one is an attack on all. This is because Ukraine is neither a member of Nato nor the EU (yet).

On the eve of his Alaska summit with his Russian counterpart, Trump was already hinting at a second summit in a jiffy. Not only has the train left the station, looks like it is turning into a bullet train in a trice.

The message to Europe under the present circumstances seems rather unequivocal: You snooze, you lose. Unfortunately, Europe has spent too much time trying to thrash out an agenda at variance with Trump’s. Trump has all the cards, to quote him as he berated Zelensky in the White House mud-slinging match not too long ago. Europe has none. Fact.

* Abbey Makoe is the publisher and editor-in-chief of the Global South Media Network (gsmn.co.za). The views expressed are personal.

** The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Sunday Independent, IOL, or Independent Media.

Get the real story on the go: Follow the Sunday Independent on WhatsApp.