The Washington (and SA) Crisis

What has caused such antagonism by the Trump administration against SA, the ANC, and the Ramaphosa Presidency? Some commentators reduce this crisis to the presence of Afrikaner nationalist organisations such as Solidarity and AfriForum. Others refer to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) case. However, there are many other factors which are much more serious and have escaped the attention of these commentators. These major factors are shaping Washington’s increasingly antagonistic posture toward South Africa, and together, they pose a direct challenge to our nation’s strategic future.

The Afrikaner Link and Lobby

Inside Washington, influential voices - many of them former and current South Africans - are aggressively lobbying to shape policy in SA to defend and advance Afrikaner interests. Figures from the Solidarity Movement and AfriForum such as Kriel & Roets with conservative think tanks have positioned South Africa as a so-called "hostile state" especially to Afrikaners. Dealing with this lobby requires sophistication. It requires the “Mandela approach” and not threats or law enforcement authorities.

As South Africans, we need to sit down and address any fundamental differences and come to a “toenadering”. This may be unpalatable for the powers on both sides, but the first step is always engagement and finding solutions that are beneficial to all South Africans. We need cool heads. What would be great if Ramaphosa or the DA supporters in the Afrikaner communities make a public stand in support of South Africa. The silence in this area is disappointing.

Ramaphosa’s Proximity to the Biden Administration

Ramaphosa’s proximity to the Biden administration has not gone unnoticed by the Trump administration. The deep connections between Ramaphosa’s inner circle and key figures within the Biden White House have positioned him within a particular party and ideological camp.

Rick Mennell, a prominent advisor to Ramaphosa, is the brother-in-law of Biden’s former chief of staff, previously providing the South African president with direct access to Washington’s highest levels of power. This is not a minor detail - it is a crucial factor in shaping how the Trump administration views South Africa. Whilst this provided some protection to Ramaphosa, that protection is now effectively nullified. Pretoria miscalculated in believing that Harris would beat Trump.

The powerful Rupert, Oppenheimer, Mennell, and Ramaphosa networks worked hard to “rescue” Ramaphosa from the Phala Phala money laundering scandal (the money involved was in US dollars, which gives the US jurisdiction to possibly investigate and prosecute Ramaphosa).

Kash Patel, the new FBI director, and AG Bondi will likely be more assertive on this issue. The recent meetings with Emma Powell (DA shadow minister International Relations) and her colleagues who were in the corridors of the Washington power elite this week suggested that they (the DA) have significant leverage over Ramaphosa (and by extension the ANC and the SA government). They apparently asked Washington to give them more time (possibly to prepare for Ramaphosa’s replacement and successor). More about this in the future.

BRICS and the Dollar

Many assume that BRICS is a major reason behind South Africa’s strained relations with the US. This is a miscalculation. BRICS has always existed since 2009, and the US, even in Trump's first term, accepted BRICS. High-level sources within Washington suggested that Ramaphosa, on a state visit to Washington about two years ago, promised Biden that BRICS would become less important over time for SA. Whilst this did not materialise, it created a mild crisis of confidence (in Ramaphosa) within key Washington circles. De-dollarisation remains a key issue.

ICJ, Israel, Washington and SA

South Africa’s case at the ICJ is far more significant than many realise. It is not the ICJ ruling itself that alarms Washington, but the perception that South Africa has aligned itself too closely with Hamas and, by extension, Iran. The perception is that SA is doing the bidding of Iran.

The Israel lobby is very strong in the US, especially AIPAC, and this is a great concern for SA. UAE and, to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia tried to dissuade SA out of the ICJ case with financial support, but this was refused by SA.

Iran and SA

High-level sources within US intelligence circles have indicated that Washington and the FBI are actively investigating potential financial ties between South Africa and Iran. These ties extend to South Africans who received monies from Iran, Qatar, and as well as the role of MTN.

Rumours abound in Washington of monies received from Iran to the ANC and Ramaphosa’s inner circle. It’s important that these rumours are refuted. If such allegations gain traction, the consequences could be severe.

According to reports, more than 160 Washington congressmen and senators signed a petition for an investigation into SA and Iran. The investigation will include ANC officials, the SA government, MTN, and SA banks. SA banks face possible sanctions from the US. This would be a terrible situation for SA.

Ramaphosa and Trump

The personal relationship between Ramaphosa and Trump is at rock bottom. It mirrors the strained ties between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ramaphosa's invitation to Zelensky to visit SA may win him friends in Europe, but stands to further antagonise Trump. Ramaphosa should reconsider this in the current crisis.

The Choices for Ramaphosa and the ANC

Given these realities, Ramaphosa has three clear choices in dealing with the US. Each path comes with its own risks and rewards.

Choice 1

Ramaphosa could take a balanced approach, addressing Washington’s concerns through diplomatic backchannels while maintaining South Africa’s strategic alliances. This would require skilful diplomacy - perhaps even a degree of deference to Trump - but it would allow us to maintain a constructive relationship with the US without sacrificing our global positioning. A bipartisan approach to US relations, rather than an overtly pro-Democratic stance, would be the most pragmatic course of action.

Choice 2

Alternatively, South Africa could fully align itself with BRICS, the Middle East, and Africa, repositioning itself within a bloc that seeks to counterbalance Western influence. However, this approach comes with significant risks. Global politics is dictated by interests, not permanent friendships. If Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin reach an understanding, South Africa’s role within BRICS could become less significant. Meanwhile, many African and Middle Eastern nations will quickly adjust their positions to accommodate Trump’s return to power. A confrontational stance against the US could leave South Africa isolated and vulnerable.

Choice 3

The third approach would be total capitulation - conceding to US demands by stepping back from BRICS, the ICJ case, and any perceived alignment with Iran. While this might temporarily restore diplomatic ties with Washington, it would have devastating domestic consequences. Ramaphosa’s credibility within the ANC would be severely damaged as he approaches the sunset period of his presidency. With the ANC’s next leadership contest set for 2027, any move perceived as bowing to US pressure could fatally weaken his standing within the party.

The Way Forward

The world is watching. South Africa’s role in the geopolitical landscape is significant, but we must manage it with foresight and pragmatism.

My experiences have given me a front-row seat to the shifting tides of global power.

I spent nearly two decades as a member of the World Economic Forum, Davos, involved with BRICS formation and Heads of State meetings, chairperson of the BRICS Business Council, State Visits to several countries, and roles and awards with former US presidents.
I have friends amongst both parties (Republican and Democrat) in the US.
I have engaged directly with world leaders, business titans, and policymakers who shape the future of our planet.

Currently, many of my friends are in Trump's inner circle and through these links and experiences, I have learned one undeniable truth: nations that fail to understand power shifts will face severe consequences. South Africa cannot afford to be a spectator in its own fate. We must take a sensible approach and come to terms with the new Washington reality. This is not just a question for President Ramaphosa. It is a question for every South African who believes in the future of our country. The choices we make today will shape our nation’s legacy for generations to come.

Dr Iqbal Survé is the Chairman of Sekunjalo Group.

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