Donald Trump's second withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement on January 20, 2025, has reignited debates on global climate governance and equity. This development carries significant implications for Indonesia, a nation grappling with ambitious climate objectives and substantial financial constraints. Indonesia’s recent inclusion as a BRICS member further underscores the broader geopolitical and environmental challenges facing the Global South.

Indonesia’s Perspective: Is Climate Policy Fair?

Indonesia has become increasingly vocal about the inherent inequities in global climate policies. Hashim Djojohadikusumo, Indonesia’s special envoy for climate and energy, has highlighted the stark disparity in per capita emissions—Indonesia emits 3 tons compared to the U.S.’s 13 tons—and questioned why developing nations must bear disproportionate burdens. President Trump's characterisation of the Paris Agreement as an "unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off" further amplifies this hypocrisy.

Trump’s withdrawal has disrupted international climate-finance commitments, such as the $20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). Although Germany has stepped in as co-leader following the U.S.’s exit, the initiative now faces significant underfunding. Recently, Hashim expressed deep frustration over unmet promises, noting that the American government has disbursed "not one dollar." These mounting uncertainties have sparked discussions within Indonesia about the viability of adhering to the Paris Agreement initiative amid complex economic and environmental challenges.

Indonesia continues to emphasise the financial inequities of global climate expectations. Its reliance on coal, which generates 67% of its electricity, highlights the financial strain of transitioning to renewables without stronger international support. Is it justifiable to penalise emerging economies while wealthier nations like the U.S. retreat from multilateral commitments?

Balancing Coal Dependency and Renewable Futures

While Indonesia has agreed to carbon neutrality by 2060 and even put a stop to approvals for new coal plants post-2040, it remains clear that existing coal plants will continue operating. Critics argue that Indonesia’s vast renewable potential, including solar and wind energy, remains significantly underutilised, despite modest targets of 19.5% renewable contributions to its energy mix. Nuclear energy also forms part of the diversification strategy, with plans for a 4.3 GW nuclear power capacity by 2032.

The renewed focus on traditional and emerging energy sources presents conflicting priorities: How can nations like Indonesia reconcile long-term environmental goals with the immediate demands of economic stability? Trump’s withdrawal shifts the burden of international accountability, raising questions about whether global cooperation can endure when major players back out of agreements.

BRICS: A Platform for Change with Challenges to Navigate

Indonesia’s entry into BRICS carries symbolic weight—it reflects a collective determination to rebalance power dynamics in a Western-dominated world.

China’s financial and technological influence in Southeast Asia complements this integration, with over 30% of Beijing's foreign energy investments concentrated in the region, primarily in coal and hydropower. Some critics argue that China's reluctance to classify itself as a "developed country" helps them avoid binding contributions to global climate funds and reveals limitations to its leadership. However, the truth about China’s status as a developing country is far more nuanced. Despite its global economic stature, China retains many characteristics of a developing economy, such as environmental challenges and regional disparities. While possessing immense influence, Beijing’s climate diplomacy remains cautious—a reality BRICS will need to carefully navigate during forums like COP30 in Brazil this year.

Indonesia still faces significant challenges as it navigates the complexities of internal disparities among BRICS nations. It must harmonise its national priorities, transitioning energy systems to greener alternatives while advocating for fairness in international governance.

The Broader Implications for the Global South

Developing nations, particularly those in the Global South, face a persistent paradox: immense pressure to transition to sustainability despite limited financial and technological resources. Indonesia serves as an example of these challenges. While officials like Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia warn of "economic suicide" from an uncalculated pivot away from coal dependency, environmental think tanks argue otherwise. Many groups emphasise that bolstering renewable energy could enhance Indonesia’s long-term competitiveness, both economically and environmentally. Efforts to seek partnerships outside the U.S., such as collaborations with Middle Eastern investors, offer hope for advancing climate agendas.

Global Trust in Multilateralism at Risk

Trump’s exit has left a gaping hole in multilateralism, with severe repercussions for the Paris Agreement’s credibility. Could other developed nations follow suit, jeopardising decades of global climate commitments?

Nations like Brazil and China provide some optimism. As COP30 approaches, Brazil aims to prioritise financial contributions for vulnerable nations like Indonesia—testing the commitment of remaining aligned powers to address climate inequity proactively.

The Path Forward: Bridging Gaps and Leading by Example

Trump’s withdrawal underscores the need for blocs like BRICS. By reducing reliance on volatile Western-led climate policies, Indonesia strengthens BRICS' push for a balanced and equitable global order. This moment offers developing nations an opportunity to lead, redefining principles of equity, innovation, and sustainable progress.

Zena Harvey: Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group

India & Southeast Asia Specialist

#cop30

Trump's Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Implications for Indonesia and the Global South