US foreign policy expert, Prof. Michael Walsh, has warned that South Africa should expect that the Trump Administration will demand that the government completely abandon bilateral trade and investment cooperation with Iran.

This comes as the US has threatened to collapse Iran’s economy by shutting down its oil industry.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week said that the US was deploying sanctions against Iran aggressively for “immediate maximum impact” with the aim to slash Iran’s oil exports of 1.5 million barrels per day to a trickle.

Iran is one of the world’s major Brent crude oil exporters and a member of the BRICS+ bloc of nations.

Walsh on Monday said no one should doubt whether the Trump Administration was committed to putting maximum pressure on the government of Iran, nor should they doubt that the Trump Administration was committed to punishing the government of South Africa for its efforts to undermine US national security and foreign policy.

He said that included a wide range of efforts (and non-efforts) that the Trump Administration believed have strengthened the power and influence of Iran and Iranian-backed proxies, including those that are US designated terrorist organizations.

“South Africans should therefore expect that the Trump Administration will demand that the Government of South Africa completely abandon bilateral trade and investment cooperation with Iran. That includes any ongoing or future efforts in the energy sector, including South African oil refinery redevelopment projects,” Walsh said.

“If the government of South Africa fails to comply, one should expect that the Trump Administration will respond with extremely severe measures. Those will likely overshadow the recent executive order.

“They could include designating South Africa as a state sponsor of terrorism, leveling Magnitsky sanctions on South African elites, opening law enforcement investigations into South African political elites, and/or imposing a SWIFT bank on South African banks. Depending on what happens with the Ukraine negotiations, the Trump Administration may also put pressure on the Government of Russia to turn a cold shoulder to South African elites moving forward.”

Economists over the weekend also cautioned that South Africa will increasingly have to weigh its trade and diplomatic options in dealing with the uncertainty generated by the ‘shock and awe’ strategy of the Trump administration.

Diplomatic relations between South Africa and the US have plummeted to historic lows under the Trump administration, which has recently suspended the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) funding to South Africa, soon after Donald Trump took the Oval Office.

Walsh said the G20 Summit was likely to present a major policy window for the Trump Administration to take coercive actions against the government of South Africa.

He said the skipping of the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors by the US Treasury Secretary was consistent with the stance that the Trump Administration has taken on the G20 Summit.

In February, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio similarly skipped the meeting of foreign ministers and indicated that his decision was driven by more than a strategic indifference to intergovernmental forums.

Walsh said the decision to focus on advancing climate change and DEI activities created a fundamental misalignment between what the Ramaphosa and Trump Administrations in the context of the G20 Summit.

“In Washington, many conservative elites believe that was an intentional choice by the Ramaphosa Administration. They believe that the Government of South Africa was intentionally trying to drive an even deeper wedge between South Africa and the United States,” Walsh said.

“For conservative elites, the G20 Summit therefore presents a welcomed opportunity for the Trump Administration to disproportionately respond to that unfriendly move.”

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US foreign policy expert warns South Africa of potential reprisals for Iran ties