The ocean economy, which doubled in value from $1 trillion in 1995 to $2trl (R36trl) in 2020, is a cornerstone of global trade and livelihoods, yet its future is uncertain, warns the OECD’s The Ocean Economy to 2050 report.

With US-China tariff threats and trade route battles escalating, the report’s timing is critical.

If past trends continue, the ocean economy could quadruple by 2050, but climate change, energy shifts, and geopolitical tensions could halt or reverse this growth without bold action, the report predicts.

Led by Claire Jolly, head of the Innovation Policies for Space and the Ocean Unit at the OECD, this study draws on the Science and Technology Policy Division’s research to map the sector’s path.

Spanning offshore oil, tourism, fishing, and shipping, it generates 3% to 4% of global gross value added (GVA) and supports up to 133 million full-time jobs.

"By examining emerging trends, technological advances, and policy developments, the report seeks to inform stakeholders about possible future paths of the ocean economy All at a time when ocean health deterioration, climate change acceleration and biodiversity loss are increasingly affecting countries around the world," it states.

Tourism hit $1.06trl in 2019, falling to $910 billion in 2020 due to Covid-19, while offshore oil and gas reached $987.4 billion, together powering two-thirds of GVA.

Asia and the Pacific drove 75% of growth, Eastern Asia 56%, with Sub-Saharan Africa, including Southern Africa, nearly doubling its share from under 2% to almost 4% via ports and fisheries.

If a country, the ocean economy would rank as the world’s fifth-largest economy, yet disruptions loom large, the report warns.

“Geopolitical tensions resulting in trade disruptions are a further global force likely to shape the future ocean economy over the coming decades,” it said, pointing to trade flow risks.

It said, “Disruptions to trade flows – due to bilateral tariffs, export bans, or trade wars between major trading nations – would affect maritime transport, maritime ports, maritime shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturing directly, and many other ocean economic activity groups indirectly.”

“Bilateral tariffs of between 5 and 10% between major trading nations would result in trade deviations of between -1 and -8% depending on the region,” it added, forecasting a 2% to 5% GVA drop by 2050.

Looking at shipping it said, "Maritime transport is the backbone of global trade in goods, accounting for more than 80% of the volume of global trade in goods and more than 70% of its total value. In 2023, global maritime trade was transported on board around 105 500 vessels of 100 GT and above, with oil tankers,bulk carriers, and container ships accounting for 85% of total capacity. The value of world merchandise trade totalled some $24.1 trillion in 2023, and the volume of merchandise tradegrew more than twice as fast as real world GDP in the 1990s, and 1.5 times as fast in the early 2000s."

The principal products transported by sea in terms of weight are bulk commodities, which tend to have relatively low weight unit values, such as iron ore, coal, crude oil, and grain. Higher value container freight accounts for about 15% of total tonnage but represents about 60% of the total value o fseaborne trade.

"The top 10 companies control over 85% of container shipping capacity. While mergers andacquisitions have reduced competition and increased economies of scale, the development of shipping alliances like 2M, Ocean Alliance and The Alliance are further increasing market concentration by pooling resources and sharing routes. Shipping and shipbuilding, vital to trade, would suffer most, alongside decarbonisation pressures," it noted.

Meanwhile, climate change could cut GVA by 5% to 15% by mid-century without emissions reductions. Tropical fisheries, like Southern Africa’s, may see catches fall 11%, hitting local livelihoods.

“Recent estimates suggest that the loss of coral reefs could cost the global economy around $1 trillion due to losses in coastal protection and tourism income alone,” it said.

Governance falters as “increasing territorial claims over ocean water s- now encompassing approximately 39% of the global ocean under some national sovereign rights -along with the expansion of illicit activities at sea, are transforming the ocean into an increasingly competitive environment.”

Energy scenarios outlined in the report vary: a slow renewable shift sustains oil and gas, while a fast transition cuts its GVA by 30%, lifting wind and marine renewables tenfold.

Ageing populations in wealthy nations could shrink workforces by 1% to 2%, impacting tourism and fishing.

The report calls for ending harmful subsidies, adopting digital tools, and bolstering ocean governance.

“Harmful subsidies must end, in fishing for instance. Transitions to cleaner energy and greater use of digital technologies should be encouraged, both are critical to mitigating climate change and boosting the productivity of ocean industries,” it urged.

It said science-based decisions and better management are vital, “Only a quarter of the ocean floor is mapped, very few countries have developed full scale marine spatial planning, and much remains to be discovered and protected in the deep sea.”

Looking at solutions the report suggests that policy frameworks - from marine spatial planning to tax mechanisms, and marine protected areas - and enforcement are key to balance growth and conservation.

BUSINESS REPORT

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OECD: Navigating the uncertainties of the ocean economy by 2050