Winter looks a bit warmer with no loadshedding in sight
Image: File
South Africans could be heading into a significantly more stable and “warmer” winter this year, with Eskom projecting that no load shedding will be implemented during the 2026 winter season.
The power utility delivered its optimistic outlook during its State of the System media briefing, outlining expectations for the period between 1 April and 31 August 2026.
In a statement, Eskom said it enters the winter season with a “resilient power system”, following a summer period marked by sustained reliability and improved grid performance.
“With the Generation Recovery Plan firmly embedded in day-to-day operations, Eskom has moved beyond short-term recovery into a phase of stability and sustained energy security, ensuring that homes, businesses and industries remain powered through the peak winter months,” the utility said.
Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane said Eskom now has a stable platform from which it can operate and expand.
“This enables us to integrate renewable energy sources as per the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan for the maintenance of energy security in the future,” he said, adding that Eskom is assessing new capacity build rates across various technologies as part of its long-term transition away from coal-fired power stations.
Eskom’s improving performance is also reflected in a sharp reduction in diesel usage, previously relied upon to run costly open cycle gas turbines. The utility reported a decrease in diesel expenditure of approximately R26.9 billion.
Group Executive for Generation Bheki Nxumalo said these savings were made possible by a more stable generation fleet and improved operational discipline.
“These savings are a result of strengthened maintenance discipline and project delivery. Every megawatt we return contributes toward economic growth,” Nxumalo said.
He added that the restoration of consistent baseload electricity supply has enabled Eskom to support struggling industries, particularly the ferrochrome sector, helping to prevent job losses.
“The country has invested in Eskom, and we are continuously working to restore this national asset to full health,” he said.
Eskom also reported notable year-on-year improvements in system performance. The Energy Availability Factor (EAF) increased from 54.55% in the 2023 financial year to approximately 65.35% in 2026 an improvement of around 10.8%. The EAF exceeded 70% on more than 80 occasions during the current financial year, signalling stronger generation reliability.
Unplanned losses have also declined significantly. The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor dropped by roughly 7.1GW, from 16.5GW to about 9.1GW as of the end of March 2026 a reduction greater than the total capacity of one of the country’s largest power stations.
At the same time, planned maintenance has increased, averaging 5.4GW, with peaks of up to 8.0GW. While this temporarily reduces available capacity, Eskom said it is essential for improving long-term plant performance and reliability.
These combined improvements have contributed to a milestone of 341 consecutive days without load shedding as of this week.
Beyond generation, Eskom is also making progress in addressing load reduction — a separate measure used to protect infrastructure in areas affected by illegal connections and overloading.
The utility said it is working closely with the Department of Electricity and Energy to accelerate the elimination of load reduction, with early successes already recorded in the Northern Cape and Western Cape, which have been fully removed from load reduction schedules.
More than 340,000 customers who were previously affected by load reduction are now experiencing a continuous power supply.
A key component of this programme is the rollout of over 600,000 smart meters to improve network visibility and manage demand more effectively. Additionally, more than 2,100 customers have been connected through distributed energy resources to strengthen supply in constrained areas.
Eskom expects that by September 2026, around 60% of feeders currently impacted by load reduction will be removed from the schedule, with the remainder to be addressed by 2027.
tracy-lynn.ruiters@inl.co.za