As the global community grapples with the escalating climate crisis, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has issued a stark warning at the opening of the UN Climate Conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
IRENA’s latest report released on Friday, the World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024, outlines a significant CO2 emission gap that remains despite existing political commitments towards achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century.
The report’s 1.5°C Scenario emphasises that even if all pledges made to date were fully implemented, substantial challenges necessitate drastic changes in energy transition strategies.
Francesco La Camera, IRENA’s director-general, articulated the urgent stakes.
“We have reached crunch time. A robust global finance deal and the next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025 are ‘make or break’ moments to keep 1.5°C alive,” La Camera said.
“NDCs 3.0 provide the last opportunity this decade for countries to step up their stated ambitions.”
Current estimates suggest that country commitments could reduce global energy-related CO2 emissions by as little as 3% by 2030 and 51% by 2050. However, sizeable geographical disparities exacerbate global inequalities, leaving much of the Global South significantly behind in access to renewable energy investments.
IRENA said while the urgency to cut emissions is clear, the gap between rhetoric and actual policy implementation was glaring.
It pointed out that national plans were set to deliver only half the necessary growth in renewable energy by 2030, a misalignment that threatens to derail the progress needed to achieve global climate goals.
To meet the targets agreed upon at COP28—namely, tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030—an overwhelming investment of $31.5 trillion was required between 2024 and 2030.
This critical funding is necessary not just for renewable technologies, but also for strengthening grids and fostering energy efficiency and conservation measures.
However, the realities of fossil fuel dependency complicate progress. With fossil fuels accounting for over 70% of energy supply among major economies, the G20, in particular, is called to action, needing to triple its installed renewable power capacity to 9 400 gigawatts (GW) by 2030.
IRENA’s findings highlight a need for a deep transformation of both the power and end-use sectors.
Under the agency’s proposed scenario, renewable energy sources would contribute 68% and 91% of the total electricity supply by 2030 and 2050, respectively. This shift entails reducing the share of fossil fuels in global power generation from 61% today to just 4% by 2050—a monumental task requiring robust interventions.
The transition from fossil fuels to renewables necessitates the enhancement of power grid networks, driven by technology such as energy storage solutions and demand-side management.
IRENA identifies energy storage as a key enabler of a decarbonised energy landscape, accentuating the need for countries to develop coherent national energy strategies. Such alignment would not only facilitate transparency but also catalyse investment and accelerate the march towards a low-carbon economy.
As the world prepares for the third round of NDCs in 2025, IRENA said collaboration was paramount.
IRENA’s engagement with 101 Parties of the Paris Agreement underscores the importance of coherence in national strategies. New sources of funding highlighted at COP29—such as a potential global wealth tax—could help ensure a just transition that maximises socio-economic benefits.
Moreover, public finance plays a pivotal role in de-risking investments in high-risk countries. A major reduction in fossil fuel subsidies and innovative financing solutions are crucial to mobilising resources necessary for building sustainable infrastructure and achieving climate goals.
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